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ECO journal (ECOnomics and industrial Engineering)

2019 year, number 2

Structural-and-Cyclical Approach to Technological Renewal of the Russian Economy

M. A. Gasanov, S. A. Zhironkin, V. A. Guzyr, A. V. Zhavoronok
National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University
Keywords: структурная и циклическая неустойчивость, базисные инновации, экономический рост, технологическая структура, экономические циклы, нелинейность экономических циклов, Structural and cyclical instability, basic innovations, economic growth, technological structure, economic cycles, nonlinearity of economic cycles

Abstract >>
The article deals with the phenomenon of deepening cyclical and structural instability of Russian economy, which has a negative impact on technological modernization and economic growth. According to the authors, the basis of economic cycles is a system of structural shifts of different directions and the expansion of contradictions in “structural crisis - structural shift” system. A structural-and-cyclical approach is proposed, revealing the nature of cyclicity, not only using its impact on structural shifts, technologies, investments (internal factors), but also through influence of external factors that lead to a qualitative transformation of the economic system. Based on the declared approach, the authors concluded that the depth of economic losses, the degeneracy of innovation, structural and technological sources of Russian economy is due to a high degree of market entropy, the prevalence of negative externalities in the economy, the imitative nature of institutional structures, the inertia of economic relations. All these negative factors are de-stimulating for technological modernization and force de-industrialization trend. The proposed approach allows establishing the genetic relationship between structural dynamics and cyclic fluctuations, reveals the dialectic of the impact of cyclic intervention on structural parameters and reverse influence of structural correlations (stability and instability) on the depth and nature of the cycle as a whole, on interphase and intraphase transitions in particular. Obviously, in this case, the research object is expanded, the model of interaction between the cycle and the structure of the economy becomes clearer, which makes it possible to identify algorithms for their interrelation and influence on macroeconomic indicators. The features of the impact of cyclical dynamics on structural shifts of the economy are determined: the shift is the primary structural determinant. It has been substantiated that the structural cycle of Russian economy is deformed, since the crisis does not eliminate disproportions in the economic structure but acquires features of a degenerative type of transformation. In conditions of increasing cyclical and structural instability, the integrated model of structural-and-anticyclical policy acquires special significance. To change the trajectory of Russia’s economic development, an integrated model of counter- cyclical and structural policies is needed.

Structural Deformation as a Component of Innovative Development

L.N. Shcherbakova
Kemerovo State University
Keywords: структурные деформации, инновации, соотношение отраслей, неопределенность инноваций, инновационное неравенство, Structural deformation, innovations, ratio of industries, the uncertainty of innovation, innovative disparities

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The work specifies the notion of structural deformations as a reproductive category with multiple effects in the economic structure. Structural deformations are considered possible in a fast growing innovation economy. Such deformations arise from inherent features of innovation such as: uncertainty of innovation, highdynamics of the process, peculiarities of innovative products and innovation cycles, existence of pseudo innovations, etc. It is suggested necessary to consider additional distortions of economic structure, arising in the process of modernization of Russian economy.

Innovative Restructuring of the Regional Economy (on the Example of Rostov Region)

O. S. Belokrylova
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don
Keywords: конкурентные преимущества, инновационный потенциал, региональная инновационная политика, проблемные зоны, бенчмаркинг, неоиндустриализация, цифровизация, региональная инновационная система, Competitive advantages, innovative potential, regional innovation policy, problem areas, benchmarking, neoindustrialization, digitalization, regional innovation system

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The work evaluates the innovative potential of Rostov region’s economy, formed as a result of the implementation of the region’s innovation policy, which has shown inefficiency in the use of the sufficiently high scientific, technical, innovative and educational potential of the region due to a number of problem areas for innovative development of the regional economy. This determined the research task of justifying directions of the regional economic policy aimed at innovative restructuring of the regional economy. To solve this problem, a benchmarking method was used that provided identification of international best practices in the implementation of economic policy in the context of rapid deployment of the 4th Industrial Revolution, which includes the following areas: neo-industrialization, digitalization and formation of regional innovation system. This allowed building a cognitive model that ensures deployment of regional economic policy from goal-setting, through criteria and metrics to the result of an innovative restructuring of the economy of the Rostov region. If neo- industrialization is identified as one of the three directions of targeted orientation of the regional policy of innovation restructuring of the economy, the high growth rates of the regional industry are used as its criterion, and one of the metrics is connection to achievements of the 4th industrial revolution, in particular, the development of Don designers on this level, as well as the use of m2m tariffs of cellular companies. As a metric testing strategy for development of digital economy, the road map “Digitalization of the urban environment in Rostov-on- Don” was used. Finally, as an indicator of the last component of the cognitive model of innovation restructuring of the economy of Rostov region - a regional innovation system - an audit of its elements was used.

Regional Innovation System as an Instrument of Advanced Social-Economic Development of the Russian Far East

V. F. Efremenko
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Khabarovsk
Keywords: экономический рост, воспроизводство, региональная инновационная система, Дальний Восток России, Economic growth, reproduction, regional innovation system, the Far East of Russia

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Forward growth of gross regional product in the Far East macro-region does not lead to adequate improvement of socio-demographic indicators in terms of sustainable development. The increase of value-added production mainly comes from commodity-producing industries rather than high-tech manufacturing. There is a significant imbalance in the dynamics of the reproductive sector development: from innovative - investment, consumer or infrastructure towards raw materials and energy. Commodity industry is the principal recipient of investment but it fails to create additional jobs. This, in the long run, undermines implementation of government plans for stable and growing population. The current social and economic policies may not produce expected results. The paper argues for necessary development of an innovative sector of the economy in the macro- region. The proposal is transition to a modern version of the State regional policy of polarized development - the concept of regional innovation system as a method to solve the problem. An efficiency assessment is made of its practical application in the Far East region. The proposed institutional changes will improve the socio- economic situation and start transition to a modern innovative type of reproduction in the macro-region.

The Future of the Russian Economy in the Eyes of “Fathers” and “Sons”. The Fifth Sight

D. S. Mikhailovskya1, V. V. Shmat2,1
1Novosibirsk State University
2Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS
Keywords: сценарное прогнозирование, моделирование экономики, экспертно-статистический байесовский метод, мониторинг-прогноз, неопределенность, экономика России, ресурсная держава, социальные проблемы, социальная политика, Scenario forecast, economy modeling, expert-statistical Bayesian method, monitoring-forecast, uncertainty, Russian economy, resource dependency, social problems, social policy

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This articles continue the series of publications with short reports about results of forecasting Russian economy development with expert-statistical Bayesian method. The special feature of this method is that it can be used under the circumstances of strong uncertainty. The fifth step of the research model focussed on social problems. As a result the picture of the most probable future scenario was formulated according to experts’ estimations and their interpretation. Numerical modeling shows strong connection between this picture and resources, Eastern and peripheral scenarios of our model.

Economic Growth and Investment Activity in Russia: Forecasts and Reality

A. V. Novikov1, I. Ya. Novikova2
1Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Мanagement
2Siberian Academy of Finance and Banking
Keywords: рост ВВП, инклюзивный рост, валовое накопление, валовое сбережение, инвестиции в основной капитал, финансовые вложения, потенциал инвесторов, GDP growth, inclusive growth, gross accumulation, gross saving, investments in fixed capital, financial investments, potential of investors

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The article analyzes the possibility of economic growth in Russia on the basis of potential of its investors. It is shown that gross domestic product (GDP) is still the main indicator reflecting economic growth. However, the conditions for transition to the Inclusive Development Index (IDI) as an indicator of economic growth are being formed. The revealed features of investment activity of organizations reflect the assessment of risk appetite, dynamics and structure of investments in fixed assets. Analysis of investment objectives and sources of financing of investments in fixed assets allowed determining the dynamics of importance of these indicators and recommendations for the use of financial investments of organizations. For this purpose, the relations between investments in fixed capital and financial investments of companies are determined. The place and role of separate financial instruments (equity and debt) for financing investments in fixed capital are investigated. On the example of individual investors (population) a detailed analysis of the population as an investor from the standpoint of investment preferences for financial instruments, which allowed to clarify the financial potential of this type of investors.

Strategic Intentions of the State in Development of Agricultural Machinery

O. V. Askanova
Polzunov Altai State Technical University, Rubtsovsk
Keywords: сельхозмашиностроение, стратегия развития, экспорт, стратегический индикатор, ожидаемые результаты, Agricultural engineering, development strategy, export, strategic indicator, expected results

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The article provides an interim assessment of achieved target indicators of the Strategy for Development of Agricultural Engineering in Russia for the period of up to 2020, which allowed the author to conclude that the results achieved by the industry do not match the expectations. Changes in the strategic planning system associated with coming into force of federal law No. 172-FZ have led to adoption of new strategic documents for development of domestic agricultural engineering. Therefore, the author examines the key intentions of the state regarding the industry in the new realities in terms of their validity and consistency. The result was the conclusion about poor quality of developed strategic documents that have not yet become real management tools.

Typical Business Strategies of Players of the Financial Market Under Fintech Revolution

I. D. Kotliarov
National Research University Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg
Keywords: финансовые технологии, финтех, краудфинансирование, финансовый рынок, Financial technologies, FinTech, crowd-finance, financial market

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The paper describes typical strategies that the players of the financial market implement in order to adapt themselves to the FinTech revolution. Sets of strategies are presented as two portfolio matrices based on the following criteria: degree of innovativeness of company’s activities, degree of innovativeness ofproduct, specialization. The latter criterion was introduced due to the fact that many non-financial companies enter financial market.A detailed description is given for each strategy. It is necessary to keep in mind that all strategies that were identified in the present paper are ideal ones. In reality financial market players can combine them. Examples of such combinations are given.

Credit Cards Market in Russia: Myths and Reality

Yu.S. Ezrokh
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management National Research
Keywords: грейс-период, закредитованность, льготный период, потребительский кредит, розничный банковский кредит, Grace period, debt load, grace period, consumer credit, retail bank credit

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The article disproves the current myths about the functioning of the credit card market in Russia in the area of: a) the insignificance of the banking segment; b) the«usual» cost of borrowing; c) ease of use of grace-periods (preferential interest- free periods); d) low impact on the growth of borrowers’ debt load; e) the possibility of using non-activated cards as a strategic financial reserve; e) economic attractiveness of a new type of credit card - installment cards; g) foreign experience in the functioning of the credit card market in developed countries (using the example of the UK). On the basis of analysis carried out by the author, he has formulated a number of major problems that impede the effective development of the credit card market in Russia at the present stage and suggested a number of debatable solutions.

Public-Private Partnership in the Light of Historical Retrospective

P. N. Teslia1,2
1Novosibirsk State Technical University
2Novosibirsk National Research State University
Keywords: государственно-частное партнерство, кормление, откуп, концессия, инфраструктура, коррупция, риски, Public-private partnership, fief, farming, concession, infrastructure, corruption, risks

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The article discusses historical forms of PPP, demonstrates that PPP was present throughout the history of the state as such. It is shown at the example of Russia that the advanced forms of PPP (fief, an analogue of concession) may appear earlier than simple ones (farming). It is shown that PPP can generate and systematically generates corruption. Although PPP was present almost everywhere, it took root and developed in different countries in different ways. The development of PPP is intermittent and uneven. PPP contributed to formation of important sustainable forms of economic and legal relationships. The scale of PPPs, measured in terms of their share in gross investment, is relatively small, but significant. Thanks to PPP, the state retains control over important assets, primarily real estate, and receives investments and effective management services from private business.