The Future of the Russian Economy in the Eyes of “Fathers” and “Sons”. The Fifth Sight
D. S. Mikhailovskya1, V. V. Shmat2,1
1Novosibirsk State University
2Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS
Keywords: сценарное прогнозирование, моделирование экономики, экспертно-статистический байесовский метод, мониторинг-прогноз, неопределенность, экономика России, ресурсная держава, социальные проблемы, социальная политика, Scenario forecast, economy modeling, expert-statistical Bayesian method, monitoring-forecast, uncertainty, Russian economy, resource dependency, social problems, social policy
Abstract
This articles continue the series of publications with short reports about results of forecasting Russian economy development with expert-statistical Bayesian method. The special feature of this method is that it can be used under the circumstances of strong uncertainty. The fifth step of the research model focussed on social problems. As a result the picture of the most probable future scenario was formulated according to experts’ estimations and their interpretation. Numerical modeling shows strong connection between this picture and resources, Eastern and peripheral scenarios of our model.
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