Home – Home – Jornals – Scientific journal “Vestnik NSUEM” 2015 number 4

This article analyzes the differentiation of budget sources according to major regional economic indicators, influencing the formation of the tax base. It is calculated rank correlation coefficient in terms of GRP per capita of the subjects of the Russian Federation to assess the structural changes of regions with respect to their mutual position of the period of 1995-2013. The relationship of wages is studied by economic activity, sex, age and education in the territorial aspect. A direct relationship is detected between the level of wages and economic activity, employment in the regions. As the suggestion to improve, the selfsufficiency of territories is offered to increase innovative activity and implementation of competitive advantage, mainly due to the competitive advantages of the region.

The article contains cross-country comparisons of financial depth (more than 100 countries, 2000-2013) to confirm by modern statistical data the positive relationship between the financial development and the economic growth. It justifies the differences in financial depth comparing to the developed countries and emerging markets, explains the challenges of the gaps in financial development of Russia and the developed and new industrial countries.

The article deals with the problem of collecting resumptive indicators of social economic phenomena and processes, taking into account the necessity of temporal development of the phenomena, the introduction of new approaches to the aggregation. Proprietory technology of individual features aggregation into integral index, which takes into account nonequivalence of the feature and their temporaty changes, is suggested. The individual features characterize different aspects of complex phenomena. Much attention is paid to calculating of generalizing indicators weight Indexes in a dynamic aspect. The calculated index can be matched both in space and in time, providing a comparative description of a complex phenomenon, allowing to judge its dynamics, making final conclusions more visible and unequivocal. The article investigates the scope of application of the proposed methodology in the economic and statistical analysis of economic and social phenomena.

The mass media frequently accuse official statistics of underestimating the inflation rate (consumer price index - CPI) by half to two-thirds. This paper analyzes potential sources of distortion of the official CPI, concluding that systematic errors causing underestimating are absent, and deliberate distortions are impossible. It also analyzes a number of alternative estimates of inflation and demonstrates that they are based either on the use of a consumer baskets that do not correspond to any real pattern of consumption and deliberately overstate rise in the price level, or on some indirect rationale that does not bear criticism. The only alternative estimate that can be taken seriously is greater than the 2005 official CPI by 2 percent points, that is, by 20 % rather than by a factor of 2 to 3.

The economic crisis and the sanctions sharpened the problems of the Russian economy. Innovation development seems to be a real way to cope with the problems. In searching for reserves of economic growth it is reasonable to pay attention to the significant role of small enterprises in creating and using innovations. The analysis showed that small enterprise in Russia produce competitive products and services for internal and foreign markets. The most important groups of small enterprises have been found on the base of their distribution on the number of employees. Clustering and Kohonen maps analysis allowed to segment the Russian regions into three homo geneous groups on innovative development. The results of the research give the oppor tunity to make right decisions in economic policy in regions and in Russia as a whole.

There is currently no method of determining the dynamics of the climate change area. Do not designed and methodology, definitions quantifying average annual climate change in the region. We propose a method for predicting exploded based on the establishment of the dynamics of the individual elements and the formation of the state of the weather forecast on the projected year. The method of multivariate analysis of crop yields generated statistical model of multi-dependence. Substituting the resulting model indicators of weather elements for years, can be obtained investigated the dynamics of generalized weather conditions. Economic analysis of the data in comparison with the actual crop yield provides a picture of the distribution of good and bad years in the studied time interval. The problem of studying the intensity of climate change area is particularly relevant in areas of risk farming. The question may arise about the different levels of meteorologists on the dynamics of climatic conditions on the planet. In our opinion, the most objective judgment about climate change will be given on climate change area on the basis of output indicators, such as yield!

Main objective of this article is identification and justification of divergences of levels and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (including - branch) the Republic of Armenia for the Post-Soviet period on the basis of studying and comparison of the above-named indicators of some countries the Commonwealth of Independent States, and also by improvement of a statistical assessment of unaccounted (shadow) economy to plan sequence of priorities which decision will result in adequacy of official statistical data to actual problems of management.

The Framework of the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2020 stipulates that «without penetration to new markets of goods and services with high value added share, Russia’s role in the global economic development and its efficient participation in the international division of labour are doomed to decline». The priorities of the social and economic policies, according to the Framework, include «increasing integration of manufacturing industries in the world economy on the basis of their involvement in the global value chains». In this regard, it is widely believed that Russia, due to the orientation of is exports towards raw materials, is not involved in the international production networks, and the inclusion in these networks requires a radical diversification of the economy with the accelerated development of its manufacturing industries. An economic and statistical tool, which has recently become available to researchers, is capable of producing relatively accurate estimates with regard to the above statements, and to analyse the position of Russia in global value chains. A computational method based on inter-country input-output tables has been proposed to identify the flows of value added driven by final domestic demand and exports, and to distinguish their sectoral and national origin and destination. Using the inter-country input-output computational framework and new OECD input-output data in this study leads to a conclusion that Russia’s integration is quite high in the downstream value chain. It is the mining sector - i.e. mostly extraction of oil and gas - that is responsible for this level of integration that may not be optimal, but is significant by global measurements. Meanwhile, a comparison with other countries casts doubt on the assumption that the reliance on manufacturing industries would allow Russia to derive greater value added from its exports.

Processing of the regional statistics data is arranged in such way that the first results of the last year under report on limited circle of indicators are released to public at the end of the 1st quarter of the next year, and by the end of the 2nd quarter, the first volume of the year-book «Regions of Russia» is issued as a separate document, with the data of the previous year, where the indicator GRP is absent. Thus, current results of the year 2014 became available for broad circle of readers in March 2015, and in June 2015 there comes out the 1st volume «Regions of Russia» with the processed data for 2014, with the only exception: the GRP indicator for 2014 will appear only in the statistics book of 2016. In this paper we put forward a method for early estimating the GRP on the base of current regional statistics, which allow run ahead 1-1.5 years in comparison with the appearance of this indicator in public media. Results of test calculations and evaluations of accuracy of the suggested method for estimating the GRP are provided.

The Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035 defines the range of tasks for the reorganization of the energy sector of the country. To achieve these goals it is necessary to improve public information and statistical base. Statistical model of the energy balance of Russia could be an effective tool. Existing energy balance forecasts are based on the scientific analysis of the Russian energy sector. However, they represent only an illustration of the positive scenario of development of the Russian economy. A new approach to formation of energy balance forecast taking into account the shortcomings of pure mathematical modeling is suggested. Analysis of existing trends, determination of invariant trends and identification of possible scenarios and forecasts for the energy sector is offered.

In this publication report presents the republic’s method of calculation of Gross Municipal Product by institutional sectors of economy broken down by 36 regions of the republic. The data presented in the report reflect the contribution of the regions to the formation of the republic’s GRP, give a generalized representation of functioning of the Sakha Republic’s economy broken down by economic activities and sectors of economy, and characterize the level of economic development.

The article deals with questions reflecting the current state of the real estate market in Russia. The analysis of the indicators characterizing the housing market in the Russian Federation. On the basis of multivariate statistical analysis of the subjects of the Russian Federation are divided into homogeneous groups of indicators characterizing the state of the housing market. Within each cluster are analyzed factors that influenced the formation of the regional particularities in the housing market, revealed trends in its main indicators. On the basis of the constructed equations of trends for the main characteristics of each cluster, to predict the further development of the real estate market in a separate cluster, and assessed the possibility of the transition of the Russian Federation in the cluster with a good position in the residential real estate market.

The article discusses the characteristics of the dynamics of the tax burden of enterprises in Russia by kinds of economic activities for the years 2006-2014. Attention is given to the main types of mathematical functions to describe trends; for a number of trends in the interpretation of the parameters ;it is shown that the traditional approach of using software packages do not always produce positive results for the mathematical expression trends; assessment of the quality of the equations of trends is given taking into account the characteristics of the autocorrelation of the residuals, coefficients of determination and mean error of approximation. The article presents groups of certain types of economic activity on an orientation change in the tax burden and the similarities in their trends. Conclusions are drawn regarding a possible reduction of the tax burden, based on the prospects of tax policy for 2016-2017.

As a controller of state finances, theorist and inventor of triple-entry accounting system, F.V. Ezersky (1835-1915) contributed greatly to the dissemination of accounting and management knowledge and practices in Imperial Russia. In a book published in 1876, entitled ≪The frauds, losses and errors in the balance sheets as a part of the double-entry system of bookkeeping and detected by the indicators to the accuracy of the accounts offered by the Russian triple-entry accounting system≫, he severely criticized the Italian method of double-entry bookkeeping, which had widely spread across Europe from the end of the Middle Ages and was perceived as the most developed method for the recording of business transactions. Then, he provided his own method of bookkeeping, called the triple-entry accounting system, in order to improve the vocational training, skills and practices of the Russian businessmen as well as the management of the state finances. Despite some reservations and criticisms expressed by other accounting theorists, Ezersky was convinced of the usefulness of his invention and also spent much time and effort to make it known in the country and abroad. In 1874, he created special courses in St. Petersburg and later in Moscow, where the rules and procedures related to the bookkeeping, budgeting and internal controls were taught to the interested public. The publication of the first specialized journals helped to spread accounting knowledge in the country and to fuel debates about the Ezersky’s accounting system. While his opponents gathered around the journal Accounting (Schetovodstvo) founded in 1888, Ezersky created in 1889 his own journal, The Accountant (Schetovod), for which he used his personal funds for a year. He also elaborated an abacus designed to make arithmetic calculations and be accessible to many people. In this paper, we will highlight some interesting aspects of his personality as well as the original features of the Ezersky’s accounting system and the debates on this subject among accounting theorists and practitioners. The conclusion aims to emphasize the role of Ezersky in the conceptual underpinning of accounting thought and the development of accounting profession in Russia.

Over the past 20 years, the system of statistics education in Ukraine has undergone profound changes as a result of economic reforms. They touched the basic principles of the organization and methodology of official statistics. These changes have affected the syllabus of education in statistics, textbooks, the content of lectures and workshops and made the use of modern information technology in the educational process more intensive. The article includes the following topics: quantitative and qualitative characteristics of statistics education in Ukraine, its main challenges, the experience of bachelor and master training programmes in ≪Applied Statistics≫ the impact of the introduction of EU standards on ≪Applied statistics≫ syllabus.

The article offers views on the assessment of the real state of the Russian economy, its dynamics, complexities, impact of sanctions and, most importantly, retardation from management 2.0 (information structure), and 3.0 as the transition to the next structure. Using a comparative approach in economy and management, in conjunction with the trends of fundamental and applied science, as well as the peculiarities of the Russian management model the reasons for the current backlog of domestic businesses from their competitors in developed countries are identified. The key issues of globalization are considered, the main obstacles to the introduction of Russia’s counter-sanctions as a response to the sanctions the US and EU are highlighted. The impact of measures of the state financial policy, and built on a liberal principle, on the current state of the domestic economy, including industry structure is demonstrated. According to the results of generalizations, approaches to the formulation of possible solutions to overcome the crisis and transition of management to the version of the sixth technological structure are formulated.

In article the problem of development of a regional social and economic complex in the conditions of modern challenges from positions of spatial approach is investigated. Challenges submit the international sanctions, reduction of investments, outflow of able-market. Social and economic processes in rural territories of regions have special sharpness. Spatial approach assumes research of a social and economic complex, as the interconnected system of human resources, assets and the economic relations localized in the region. The priority in development of human resources causes allocation of organized recreational space as model of a sustainable development. Research of development of object taking into account functions, economic interests and values, a goal-setting of the main institutional units demands statistical methodology. The methodology of statistical research of object represents the interconnected system of conceptual approaches, the principles, measuring scales, statistical methods of collecting and the analysis of official statistics and selective inspections data, expert estimates.

There has been a large number of studies on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, in particular myocardial infarction. However, given the data are so varied that, based on these indicators make serious conclusions were very difficult. This obviously indicates lack of reliable information. There is no definite answer to the question of whether a reduction in mortality attributed to the improved success of treatment or prevention. Implementation of programs in Novosibirsk, the World Health Organization helped to answer these questions and to define priorities.

The harmful impact of criminalization on social and economic institutions, violence that tends to increase both in the real world and cyberspace as well as growing transnational crime produce the demand for reliable data on the current state and statistical assessment of this phenomenon for comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to its sustainability. So, intensive international efforts aimed at developing common approaches to confront crime are of paramount importance. It is argued that the problem solution requires the international preventive cooperation for the urgent creation of the UNO-sponsored information resources - a data bank on the crime rates in the world, its separate regions and countries, and the appropriate judiciary activities on the basis of the comparable international classification of crimes for statistical purposes. Having analyzed the international statistical conventions, regulations and our predecessors’ research results, we found out that initially the issue of comparable crime statistics in different countries was referred to as both theoretical and practical. The growing urgency of this problem was acknowledged by the United Nations, and in 1951 the idea to develop a «standard classification of offenses» was put forward. The UNO Social Commission stressed the importance of its preparation, so that «the governments could submit statistical reports on crime within the standard timeframe». The demand for methodological standards such as the international classification of crimes for statistical purposes (the classifier) unanimously recognized by the international community became relevant. With the set invariance of the quantitative component of the statistical method taken into account, the objective (qualitative) component lays a cornerstone for the development of a standard classifier of crimes followed by its practical implementation in the UNO member states. The concluding issues cover the notion of classification both as a core element in the development of the statistical data program that ensures comparability of statistical data, and its properties in relation to the international classification of crimes for statistical purposes, as well as its qualitative features, goals, objectives and principles. Attention is drawn to the fact that the countries are required to consider the same version of the standard classifier for adjusting their national classifications to the draft classifier which is under discussion by the international community. Specific proposals are made to improve the draft classifier taking into account the peculiarities of national criminal law and legal acts that regulate the organization of statistical activities.

In order to accomplish up-to-date tasks, archeology must use one of the recent areas of Artificial Intelligence - «intellectual data analysis» which is a brief and imprecise translation from English of the terms «Data Mining» and «Knowledge Discovery in Databases» (DM & KDD). For several years, the authors have been conducting research on the statistical analysis of data in archeology. In the course of these studies we have developed a coherent application of methods in archeology with the analysis of citation and identification of scientific schools. In the course of the studies we used: the methods of analysis of variance; methods of factor analysis and multidimensional scaling; clustering. With the help of clustering, Data Mining allocates various homogeneous groups of data; a procedure to detect the structure of the table. The article provides specially designed tools for ordering an inhomogeneous archaeological information and identifying its structure. The method of re-sampling with replacement. Comparison of the classifications and forming of a generalized classification. In addition, the article works out the method of forming a generalized consolidated classification, based on an analysis of coincidence of different classifications of the same object.

In the conditions of limitation of investment possibilities there is actual a studying of competitiveness of kinds of economic activities which represents one of the major components of research of relations on a labour market, and also serves as an important reference point for formation of economic policy of region and strategy of business communities. In article authors formulate a technique of an estimation of supply and demand in employment sphere by the economic activities kinds, based on регрессионных models under the panel data, allowed to reveal not only influence of explaining variables on number of the occupied population but also to consider time effects. Such approach allows to define, at what level the factors defining dynamics of structure of employment of region by kinds of economic activities, and, hence, are concentrated the operating influences interfering destructive changes should be concentrated to what level. Approbation of the offered technique has been spent on an example of Republic of Mary El that has allowed to define directions of development of economy of region and to formulate likelihood scenarios of economic development for kinds of activity of various level of competitiveness. Advantage of the offered approach consists in its universality and applicability to an estimation of dynamics and structure of various social and economic indexes and their structures.

Municipalities in the Russian Federation are significantly different in terms of socioeconomic development. Significant disparities in this area lead to problems in the formation of a unified budget, investment policy, planning the development of the economic and social sphere of the region. In order to reduce the level of differentiation in the socioeconomic development of the region’s municipalities it is necessary to solve the problem of financial support of municipalities. The paper proposes a method of determining the influence of socio-economic development of municipalities in the amount of financial support provided to them through the use of regression analysis, and the scheme of distribution of financial support between municipalities, depending on the performance of socio-economic indicators, taking into account the distribution of aid stimulating and leveling parts. This will solve the problem of horizontal and vertical alignment of territories in the region, and make more transparent the process of reallocation of funds within the subject.ertical alignment of territories in the region, and make more transparent the process of reallocation of funds within the subject.

The report is supposed to give a quantitative estimation of the social economic effect connected in its payment and tax and pension contributions in general across Kazakhstan, gender, regional, branch, social (workers, employees) and professional section.

Pension benefits are within the Russian Federation in the form of mandatory and voluntary pension insurance and affect property interests of the entire population. Feature of the organization of this type of insurance is participation in it as insurers - the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation and non-state pension funds (NPF), as well as insurance companies having a license for this type of activity. The article characterizes the structure of pensions according to the forms of insurance and insurers and analyzed its dynamics. The development of certain forms of pension insurance was studied.

Business Intelligence describes an efficient use of a company available data for decision making. This data is added to an existing information system, so that new ways of solving the existing problems would be extracted from it. Based on this knowledge, company management can make the right decision keeping the received data in mind, and give the appropriate instructions. Although the geographical location plays a crucial role in assessing the possible actions of the company, in the past the geographical component was neglected. Location Intelligence, a relatively young discipline, offers an integrated supplement for BI-Reporting and helps to analyze and visualize the data with reference to geographical location. It is necessary to understand the difference between the Location Intelligence and GIS systems, which are already quite intensively used by companies.

Mounting security and compliance demands are pushing businesses to implement accurate identity management in their IT systems. As an interface between the company`s organizational structure and an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) system, identity management is subjected to change on both sides. Keeping real-life requirements in line with configured authorizations means responding to these changes. But in reality, very few companies bother to make thorough, real-time adjustments to their systems after implementation - with far-reaching consequences: their concepts become incompatible with their requirements. These kinds of discrepancies reduce the quality of business processes, compromise security and drive up costs - making reality-based identity management based on an extensive usage analysis imperative. Up-to-date ERP systems based on in-memory-databased are gifted with integrated analytic capabilities. These capabilities properly used are the key instrument to align identity management to company needs, providing a transparent, lasting security concept and reduce costs throuth accurate license management. In close cooperation with a formerly aligned authorization concept, the use case even goes beyond: a reality based identity management will be enabled wich can be realized as leading control system - with in-time indicators for business and/or compliance issues - to ensure accurate business activities.

An analytical review of the local government system evolution in Russia is submitted. In terms of the development of integrated information resources within the boundaries of a single right and methodological space shows the need of providing a modern system of local governance quality information. In the framework of the system approach realization the components of the municipal level of management are considered. And such level reflects its role as the most flexible one in the sphere of population interests realization. The need of elaboration of common methodological approaches to the development of information at this level of management taking into consideration the peculiarities of their functioning and taking into account the historical and other local traditions is proved. The analysis was based on the methodology of integrated assessment of the Russian regions development level. It concluded that the municipal level of administration should include the following blocks of information: demographic, economic, infrastructural, legal, medical, cultural, environmental, educational, social. And to have a constant information component for the analysis of dynamics and comparative performance evaluations and variable one for the solution of specific objectives of the municipality.

High school management include processing of large volumes diverse data that accumulate in the form of various, often unrelated, sets. Management problems require the creation of multi-dimensional analysis systems that satisfies specific needs of different users categories and allows to find hidden connections and patterns, detect ways to improve quality of single departments and whole university. Ensuring of diverse information needs possible if will be created multi-agent system, where in each of agents will solve their problems, at the same time working with a common data repository. This article includes analyzes methods of multidimensional data analysis, goals and technology of agents and proposes conceptual model of a multi-agent platform for management of educational process.

The prevailing method to determine the factors of the regression equation is the least squares method (LSM), i.e. the parametric method that requires a number of severe restrictions: independence and normality of the distribution of measurement errors, no correlation of exogenous variable. It is known that even minor violations of these assumptions is dramatically reducing the effectiveness of evaluations. It should be noted the fragility of the LSM estimation procedure under large errors that comes to insolvent evaluation. Finding the autoregression equation factors significantly complicated by the bad conditionality of equations system representing the necessary conditions minimum sum of squares of deviations. The least t modules method (LMM) is alternative to LSM to ensure sustainability of under violation of LSM restrictions. Two options for implementing LMM: weighted LMM (WLMM) and generalized LMM (GLMM) are discussed in the report. Interdependence of WLMM and GLMM established in the work allows GLMM estimation brings to the iterative procedure with WLMM evaluations. The latter are calculated by solving the corresponding linear programming tasks.

Currently, thanks to works of the Nobel laureate O. Williamson, along with such forms of performance management as market and hierarchy (i.e. firm), there are also hybrids - a specific form of organization of transactions, constituting a compromise between market and hierarchy. However, despite an important role of hybrids in economic life, currently there are no practical techniques based on measurable characteristics, which would make it possible to assign economic structures to hybrids. The existing approaches to allocation of hybrids are either of theoretical nature, poorly suitable for use in practice, or based on subjective evaluations of external characteristics of economic entities. It is obvious that it is inconvenient nor methodologically, nor practically. The suggested paper attempts to offer a technique of a quantitative assessment of those substantial characteristics of hybrids, which are used by O. Williamson for their description, and to construct the algorithm of assignment of the economic structures to hybrids. The solution of the issue of extracting hybrids from the total number of economic entities will make it possible to set out informal structures in economy as well, along with the formal integrated structures, and to estimate the real extent of integration of the enterprises.

In dynamic development of market, there is a process of active integration of traditional methods of accounting, analysis, control and audit in a single analytical accounting system of data acquisition and processing. The aim of the research is to ground theoretical hypotheses and principles of accounting and analytical system of business organization management. The article presents the author’s concept of accounting and analytical system of business organization management in the context of accounting/reporting, analytical and control components, taking into account the principle of consistency and «synergistic effect». Such a system would make the accounting and analytical processes manageable, contribute to continuity of combining accounting and analytical operations into one process, help to conduct management analysis and audit, use the results in making management decisions as well as be able to influence positively the quality of the final accounting and analytical information and management decisions. The integrated accounting and analytical management system of financial and economic activities, which has a «synergistic effect», will make possible to manage business successfully on a full scale, form a general database, which facilitates a process of decision-making.