TESTING THE EARLY GRP ESTIMATION METHOD ON THE BASE OF THE CURRENT STATISTICS DATA
S.A. Suspitsyn
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the RAS, Academician Lavrentyev Ave., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: валовой региональный продукт, оперативная статистика, опережающие показатели, оценки ВРП, general regional product (GRP), current statistics, leading indicators, estimations of GRP
Abstract
Processing of the regional statistics data is arranged in such way that the first results of the last year under report on limited circle of indicators are released to public at the end of the 1st quarter of the next year, and by the end of the 2nd quarter, the first volume of the year-book «Regions of Russia» is issued as a separate document, with the data of the previous year, where the indicator GRP is absent. Thus, current results of the year 2014 became available for broad circle of readers in March 2015, and in June 2015 there comes out the 1st volume «Regions of Russia» with the processed data for 2014, with the only exception: the GRP indicator for 2014 will appear only in the statistics book of 2016. In this paper we put forward a method for early estimating the GRP on the base of current regional statistics, which allow run ahead 1-1.5 years in comparison with the appearance of this indicator in public media. Results of test calculations and evaluations of accuracy of the suggested method for estimating the GRP are provided.
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