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Region: Economics and Sociology

2017 year, number 4

1.
Siberia’s Role in the Spatial Development of Russia and its Positioning in the Russian Federation Spatial Development Strategy

V.V. KULESHOV, V.E. SELIVERSTOV
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: Сибирь, Стратегия пространственного развития России, региональная политика, стратегическое планирование, инвестиционные проекты, экономическое сотрудничество России и Китая, стратегическая инициатива «Один пояс - один путь», Siberia, Russian Spatial Development Strategy, regional policy, strategic planning, investment projects, Russia-China economic cooperation, One Belt One Road Initiative

Abstract >>
The article considers a problematic situation and disproportion in the spatial development of Russia. It expresses the authors’ position on the cur rently established Russian Federation Spatial Development Strategy and outlines conceptual provisions that should be reflected there. We examine the strategic priorities for the spatial development of Russia and Siberia, as well as trends, challenges, and threats that can change the development vectors in macro-regions. Special attention is paid to the positioning of Siberia in the eastern vector of Russia’s development and, in particular, to the problems of development and interaction among the regions in Siberia, the Russion Far East, and the Northeast China. We review some issues related to aligning the Eurasian Economic Union with the Silk Road Economic Belt and carrying out the One Belt One Road Initiative.



2.
Project SIRENA: from Concept to Technology

S.A. SUSPITSYN
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: пространственная экономика, регион, сценарии, стратегическое планирование, моделирование, долгосрочные прогнозы, иерархическая структура, spatial economics, region, scenarios, strategic planning, modeling, long-term forecasts, hierarchical structure

Abstract >>
The article describes the background, current state and development prospects of the SIRENA (abbreviated from «synthesis of regional and macroeconomic solutions» in Russian) research project, which has been developed in the IEIE since the early 1980s and deals with a methodology for coordinating long-term solutions within the two-tier «national economy - regions» system was developed in the early 1980s. We present a model-methodical and software-information platform aimed at building a complex of hierarchical forecast calculations (KIPR), which is the calculation core of Project SIRENA. The article gives examples of how to make long-term regional development forecasts that implement the correct transfer of scenario macroeconomic conditions to the regions. We discuss promising trends in analyzing and forecasting the development of the Russian multiregional system with SIRENA: studying the topological properties of the space of regional indicators, measuring sustainable spatial transformations of the Russian economy, technologizing methods for developing normative scenarios of the country’s spatial development, constructing genetic development scenarios for the Russian multi- regional system based on evolutionary economics and others.



3.
Inter-Budgetary Relations in the System of State Regional Policy Measure

I.N. MYSLYAEVA, T.V. NAUMENKO
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Lomonosov av., 27, bld. 4, Moscow, 119992, Russia
Keywords: бюджетная обеспеченность, регионы, межбюджетные отношения, межбюджетные трансферты, модель бюджетного федерализма, budgetary security, regions, inter-budgetary relations, inter-governmental transfers, a model of budgetary federalism

Abstract >>
The article analyzes the current state of the fiscal equalization system in the Russian Federation and comes to a conclusion thereon: the country lacks a complete and efficient system for redistributing public funds between the budget levels. Unlike most studies in this field, the paper challenges the conclusion that a cooperative model of fiscal federalism needs to be implemented as being only possible development of Russia’s center-periphery relations. In order to stabilize the economic situation in the regions and municipalities, as well as to overcome their welfare mentality, we propose to employ a mixed model that includes elements of both cooperative and decentralized models of fiscal federalism.



4.
Northern Regions in Russia: the Level and Structure of Mortality

L.A. POPOVA, N.N. TARANENKO
Keywords: северные регионы, смертность населения, продолжительность жизни, гендерная дифференциация, причины смерти, младенческая смертность, northern regions, mortality, life expectancy, gender differentiation, mortality causes, infant mortality

Abstract >>
The article examines mortality and life expectancy in the northern regions of Russia. It shows that life expectancy in the North is below the national average. Only in Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, this indicator is higher than the nationwide figure. This situation is largely due to the «export of mortality» to the southern regions. Despite the reduction, life expectancy here is still more gender-differentiated than it is in other parts of the country. The proportion of mortality from external causes remains above the average Russian level. In most of the North, infant mortality has declined over recent years. The article’s conclusion is that the Russian North still has large reserves to increase life expectancy. We justify activities for extending the existing positive trends.



5.
Age Specific of Interregional Migration in Russia

L.B. KARACHURINA, N.V. MKRTCHYAN
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya st., 20, Moscow, 101000, Russia
Keywords: возраст, коэффициент возрастной интенсивности нетто-миграции, межрегиональная миграция, регионы, age, index of the age-specific intensity of net migration, interregional migration, regions

Abstract >>
This article analyzes differences between age-specific interregional migration profiles in Russia and their features. The study relies on the data on internal interregional migration by one-year age groups for the period of 2011-2015, and data on migration between municipal formations by five-year age groups for the period of 2012-2015. The primary method of analysis is to classify age-specific migration profiles. We divided the regions of Russia into two types: with net interregional migration gain and with net migration loss. Then we defined sub-types of regions differed by migration gain (loss) in the key age groups and by age-specific migration rates. The article shows and explains variations in indices of the age-specific intensity of net interregional migration, as well as highlights the impact of migration on the age structure of the population in regions.



6.
Contribution of Various Sources to Interregional Personal Income Inequality in Russia

M.YU. MALKINA
National Research Lobachevsky State University of Nizhny Novgorod, Bolshaya Pokrovskaya st., 37, Nizhny Novgorod, 603000, Russia
Keywords: регион, доходы населения, источники доходов, неравномерность, коэффициент Джини, декомпозиция, region, personal incomes, income sources, inequality, Gini coefficient, decomposition

Abstract >>
The article evaluates the contribution of different personal income sources and their components to interregional inequality under static and dynamic conditions over the period of 2001-2015. We show that labor compensations had the least impact on reducing interregional differences, and their relative contribution to inequality increased. Social transfers had the greatest leveling effect, but their convergence potential was significantly exhausted due to the construction features. Property incomes were the strongest catalyst for inequality, but their share in the total personal incomes was small and decreasing, and their interregional differences in this area dropped in the postcrisis period, so they made a small contribution to the regional convergence. Incomes from entrepreneurial activity also had a small effect on reducing interregional disparities due to a decrease in the share of total incomes and spatial reallocation. The predominant contribution to convergence (more than 50%) was made by so-called other (mostly informal) incomes. The obtained results testify to the impact of both the centralized redistribution of incomes along with the adaptive practices of the population and the peculiarities of the regions' institutional environment on the reduction of interregional differences related to personal incomes in contemporary Russia.



7.
Factors of Growth of Russian Regions: Adaptation to New Conditions

N.N. MIKHEEVA
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nakhimovsky av., 47, D-418, Moscow, 117418, Russia
Keywords: региональные факторы, валовой региональный продукт, экономический рост, агломерационные эффекты, человеческий капитал, потребительский спрос, инвестиции, экспорт, regional factors, gross regional product, economic growth, agglomeration effects, human capital, consumer demand, investment, export

Abstract >>
The article provides the results from analyzing the dynamics of production in the Russian regions between 2010 and 2016. The main hypothesis of the study is that the change in the Russian economic development model in 2014-2016 should have affected the economic situation in regions and activated the factors of economic dynamics that stayed passive before. We present a set of factors characterizing the initial conditions and objective region-to-region differences: the structure of the regional economic complex, features and limitations related to generating final demand, economic policy and institutional conditions. The research methodology is based on using the apparatus of extended production functions. We numerically assess the factors’ contribution to the dynamics of GRP per capita for 2010-2015. The main factors that determined the regional economic growth in a stable upward momentum and under the economic crisis were national trends. This is also confirmed with the estimates of regional dynamics carried out by identifying structural changes. For the whole period under research, factors associated with agglomeration effects, the localization of extractive industries, agriculture, and the chemical industry turned out to be statistically significant. In 2013-2015, factors of domestic demand - investor and consumer demands - were becoming more important. At the same time, there was no fundamental change in the contribution of factors; in particular, the ones characterizing innovation activity in regions and small enterprise development did not appear to be statistically significant. We define which economic policy trends have the most impact on regional growth. They include stimulation of the investor and consumer demands; for the conditions of 2015, a key factor was a decline in the poverty headcount ratio.



8.
Medium-Term Forecasting of the Development of the Buryat Republic with a Dynamic Input-Output Model

A.O. BARANOV1, Z.B.-D. DONDOKOV2, K.P. DYRKHEEV2, V.N. PAVLOV3, V.I. SUSLOV4
1Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 1, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Buryatia Scientific Center, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sakhyanova st., 8, Ulan-Ude, 670047, Russia
3Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politekhnicheskaya st., 29, Saint-Petersburg, 195251, Russia
4Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: среднесрочное прогнозирование, динамическая межотраслевая модель, экономика Республики Бурятии, medium-term forecasting, dynamic input-output model, economy of the Buryat Republic

Abstract >>
The article forecasts the development of the economy in the Buryat Repub- lic within 2017-2019, contingent on the aggregate macroeconomic forecast of Russia’s economic development, by using a dynamic input-output model. For the economy of Buryatia, we calculate the forecast in two versions: baseline and optimistic. Following the forecast calculation results for the dynamic in- put-output model, we outline predictive estimates of the dynamics of regional and sectoral indicators of the Republic for 2017-2019 in comparable prices. According to the baseline forecast, the Buryat GRP will retain negative dynamics in 2017-2018. A moderate economic growth will only pick up in 2019 (GRP growth rate is 101%). Fixed investment will continue to fall in 2017 (95%) and resume growing only in 2019 (102%). It is shown that under a more active economic policy by the Government of the Republic of Buryatia and favorable macroeconomic conditions, the optimistic scenario demonstrates a slight economic growth as early as 2018: GRP will increase by 1%. In 2019, according to this version, GRP will rise by more than 3%. Considering the investment lag, in order to ensure economic growth in 2018-2019 under the optimistic sce- nario, a significant increase in investment should be resumed in 2017, which will continue in 2018-2019. The optimistic forecast is a numerical estimate of those investment increment factors that are necessary to ensure the beginning of an economic recovery in the Republic of Buryatia.



9.
Assessing External Influence on Trade in the Regions of the Siberian Federal District

G.D. KOVALEVA1,2, A.V. KOSTIN1,2
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2Novosibirsk National Research State University, Pirogov st., 2, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: Сибирский федеральный округ, внешняя торговля, динамические модели экспорта и импорта регионов, мировые цены, валютный курс, санкции, пошаговый регрессионный анализ, корреляции, риски, Siberian Federal District, international trade, dynamic models of regional export and import, world market prices, exchange rate, sanctions, stepwise regression analysis, correlations, risks

Abstract >>
The article depicts a model to test a hypothesis about the effect of world-market oil prices, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russia sanctions on the international trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District and Russia in general. We present the results of studies on foreign trade dynamics, commodity structure, and regional specific features. An independent result is an experience of using iterative multiple step-by-step regression, which makes it possible to identify a significant set of influencing factors and evaluate how they impact the generation of changes in a dependent variable. The article shows that sanctions had an inconsiderable effect on international trade. We have discovered a connection to sanctions for some regions of the Siberian Federal District but no influence from them on the district’s aggregated trade.



10.
Project for the Construction of the Fourth Ob River Motorway Bridge in Novosibirsk: Analysis and Evaluation of Alternatives under Risk

R.V. BEKKER
Siberian Transport University, Dusya Kovalchuk st., 191, Novosibirsk, 630049, Russia
Keywords: инвестиционный проект, инвестиции, экономическая эффективность, автомобильный мост, контрейлерные перевозки, investment project, investment, economic efficiency, motorway bridge, piggy-back traffic

Abstract >>
The article estimates the expected efficiency of constructing a motorway bridge across the Ob River in Novosibirsk under risk. We analyze alternatives that require much lower financial contribution and provide an opportunity to improve the city traffic situation in a short time. We consider organizing piggy-back traffic across the Ob, which would involve vehicle carriage over railway bridges. Investment decisions are evaluated using indicators of a project’s commercial and fiscal efficiency. The calculations have shown that the piggy-back bridge crossings are more economically viable than a new motorway bridge.



11.
Transaction Costs in the Subsoil Use: Eco-Economic Analysis of the Mechanisms of Public-Private Partnerships

I.P. GLAZYRINA1, S.M. LAVLINSKII2
1Institute of Natural Resources, Ecology and Cryology, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nedorezov st., 16a, Chita, 672014, Russia
2Institute of Mathematics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Koptyug av., 4, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: освоение минерально-сырьевой базы, трансакционные издержки, государственно-частное партнерство, модель Штакельберга, mineral resource base development, transaction costs, public-private partnership, the Stackelberg model

Abstract >>
The article examines the problems of developing a regional mineral resource base in regions, which have an underdeveloped production infrastructure. We propose an original mathematical model, where public investments are involved both in creating infrastructure and carrying out environmental measures, to assess the impact of transaction costs (TС) on the performance of public-private partnerships (PPP). Such a situation often occurs in practice and usually stems from a need to build modern housing and environmental infrastructure in remote areas of Siberia and the Far East. The article reveals factors that affect the efficiency of PPP when developing fields on the untapped areas. A significant factor of influence, comparable to the discount rate, is the state’s level of TCs, with their growth having the most negative effect against a high investment discount rate. This suggests that, in adverse investment conditions, it is important to prevent the state’s TCs from growing. The most natural way is through improving the efficiency of state institutions of eco-economic regulation, reducing redundant functions and excessive costs. The analysis shows that the economic performance of PPPs depends on individual factors and their combinations alike, and the dependence is rather complex. An a priori assurance that a PPP where the state has a substantial share always brings positive results is unfounded if we aim to respect the interests of not only private businesses but also society as a whole.



12.
Trans-Eurasian Transport Megaprojects: Project Intentions

A.V. IVANOV1, YU.V. POPKOV2, I.V. FOTIEVA3, P. GUPTA4
1Altai State Agricultural University, Krasnoarmeyskiy av., 98, Barnaul, 656049, Russia
2Institute of Philosophy and Law, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nikolaev st. 8, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
3Altai State University, Lenin av., 61, Barnaul, 656049, Russia
4Institute of Integrated Himalayan Studies, Himachal Pradesh, Shimla, 171005, India
Keywords: Евразия, Россия, Китай, Индия, геополитический лидер, стратегирование, международное сотрудничество, мегапроекты, Eurasia, Russia, China, India, the geopolitical leader, strategizing, international cooperation, megaprojects

Abstract >>
The article gives a review of transport megaprojects expected to be carried out in Eurasia. We assess the existing latitudinal and meridional megaprojects in terms of their prospects and risks for Russia and its border regions, as well as for Eurasian countries in general. The article critically evaluates a project related to the New Silk Road, which consists of laying a road and a gas pipeline through the Ukok high-altitude plateau on the Altai border between China and Russia. As an alternative, we provide rationale for building up a meridional transport, economic and cultural Russian-Indian mega-corridor. We remark its potentialities in bringing economic benefits, solving border disputes, expan- ding cooperation among the Eurasian BRICS countries, overcoming cultural and environmental risks, as well as promoting interaction within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The article considers megaprojects an essential addition to Eurasian latitudinal ones and an important condition for strengthening the power of the Eurasian geopolitical world.



13.
Optimizing Planning of Innovative Process from New Product Development to Distribution

V.V. TITOV1, S.K. NAPREEVA2
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
2OOO Scientific Production Enterprise of Geophysical Equipment «Luch», 2nd Yurga st., 34, Novosibirsk, 630051, Russia
Keywords: разработка новой продукции, стохастические графы с возвратами, определение характеристик продукции, оценка эффективности выпуска продукции, модель оптимизации планирования работы предприятия, new product development, stochastic graphs with backtracks, product characterization, the assessment of production efficiency, optimization model for corporate planning

Abstract >>
The organization of corporate planning from the development of new products to their distribution in the system of optimized intracompany management under risk and uncertainty of external and internal environment is a complex scientific and methodological problem. Currently, there are virtually no sound risk-management techniques at the level of industrial enterprises, so the research issue is undoubtedly topical. At the top level of management, key strategic indicators are achieved by the development and implementation of innovations, mostly related to planning and producing new high-tech products. However, it is at this level that risk and uncertainty have the greatest impact on planning the design, production, and distribution of new products. Researchers suggest using stochastic graphs with backtracks for such planning. This idea is supported by an optimization model for corporate planning, which enables to assess the efficiency of new product development and distribution processes. In the article, we show the solution methodically and practically by an example of a functioning instrument-making plant.



14.
Forum for China-Russia Economic Cooperation and Innovative Development

A.N. Tokarev
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia