CARTOGRAPHIC MODELS OF REGIONAL LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING (A CASE STUDY OF THE VOLGA BASIN)
E.G. Kolomyts
Institute of Ecology of Volga Basin, Russian Academy of Sciences, Tolyatti, Russia
Keywords: natural zones, classification of landscapes, global warming, analytical forecasting modeling, forecasting mapping, forecast landscape-ecological scenarios
Abstract
A forecasting cartographic modeling of the direction and rate of transformation of the region’s landscape-zonal structure has been carried out according to one of the scenarios of global climate change. The methodology of predictive analytical calculations as an algorithm for operations with climatic niches of geo (eco-) systems is described. Regional mapping of focal and induction phytocoenological transformation of landscapes of various natural zones was performed by using the thermo-humid variant of regional warming. It is shown that the zonal component of the climatogenic transformation of geosystems is the primary object of regional landscape-ecological forecasting. On the forecast maps of the dominant focal transformation of landscapes, two dynamic characteristics are shown: 1) the prevailing tendency for a given type of landscape to move from its “own” natural zone (subzone) to another zonal subdivision, and 2) the general degree of interzonal phytocoenological transformations of landscapes of a given species. The secondary induction transformation of landscapes, associated with their transboundary interaction and determining the degree of displacement of landscape boundaries, actually manifests itself only for landscape neighbors of the first order, with a corresponding shift of landscape boundaries. A quantitative assessment of the influence of “generic barriers” characterizing the morphogenetic contrasts of the natural-territorial mosaic pattern on the system of landscape-zonal transitions is given. Fragments of forecast maps of focal and induction transformation of landscapes in the Volga river basin are presented. The processes of phytocoenotic transformations of the landscapes for the predicted periods of 2050, 2075 and 2100 are briefly described. In the western sector of the Volga basin, mass transgression of boreal vegetation into the subzone of deciduous forests and even into the middle forest-steppe is predicted. In the eastern, pre-Ural sector, on the contrary, the introduction of broad-leaved and forest-steppe communities in the boreal zone is expected.
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