Analysis of comprehensive forecast of lightning activity
I.M. Gubenko1, K.G. Rubinstein1,2
1Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
2Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia
Keywords: thunderstorms, Moscow region, WRF-ARW, convection, electrification models, instability indices
Abstract
Results of lightning activity forecast over the territory of the Moscow region for the period June 1 - August 31, 2017, are presented. The validation is made for forecasts based on the atmospheric instability indices, Cb electrification model, and WRF-ELEC module. The predictions of WRF-ARW model are used as input data. The indices Total Totals, SWEAT, CAPE, Iww, K (Whiting), and Peskov are studied. Estimation is performed using the Worldwide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The WWLLN data are preliminary compared with meteorological data.
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