Predictive mapping of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystems with multidirectional trends in climatic humidification in subarid conditions
D. A. CHUPINA1, I. D. ZOLNIKOV1, E. N. SMOLENTSEVA2
1V. S. Sobolev Institute of Geology and Mineralogy of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: прогнозное картографирование, пространственно-временная динамика, изменение климата, цифровые модели рельефа, SRTM, predictive mapping, spatial dynamics, climate change, digital terrain models
Abstract
The approach to modeling spatial dynamics of forest-steppe ecosystems under climate change is proposed. It based on using morphometric analysis of the digital elevation model (SRTM). The forecast is grounded on the analysis of the geological and geomorphological ecosystems framework. At the same time the functional significance of landforms and their impact on the static and dynamic properties of ecosystems are considered. The obtained results show flat areas are the most resistant to climate change, while lake areas are vulnerable to intensification of humidification or aridification. Predictive mapping based on GIS and RS confirm the existing ideas about the discrete mosaic character of changes in the forest-steppe of Western Siberia under different climate trends.
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