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Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics

2020 year, number 9

Numerical experiments on the forecast of ice phenomena

R.Yu. Ignatov1, K.G. Rubinstein1,2, Yu.I. Yusupov3
1Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
2Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia
3Limited Liability Company Scientific Production Association В«Map Maiker», Moscow, Russia
Keywords: прогноз гололеда, Центральный регион России, WRF-ARW, forecast of ice, central region of Russia


Methods and results of numerical forecast of ice phenomena over the territory of the central Russia for winters 2003-2018 are presented. The forecast success is compared using the analysis of precipitation types and the heat balance model, where the predictions of the WRF-ARW model are used as input. Some advantages of forecasts using a heat-balanced model are shown. It is suggested to develop an integral method in the future.