Seasonal and long-term variability of the energy balance components of the Earth's climate system and their impact on global temperature
G.M. Kruchenitsky1,2, K.A. Statnikov2
1Central Aerological Observatory, Moscow Region, Russia
2Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow Region, Russia
Keywords: альбедо, сезонная и долговременная изменчивость, деформация фотосферы, флуктуации солнечной постоянной, тренды, приливные колебания, параметрический резонанс, климат, albedo, seasonal and long-term variability, photosphere deformation, solar constant fluctuations, trends, tidal oscillations, parametric resonance, climate
Abstract
Seasonal and long-term variability of energy balance parameters of the Earth's climate system: albedo and solar irradiance is analyzed. It is shown that the parametric resonance of the Earth's climate system with long-period tidal oscillations, as well as the deformation of the solar photosphere under the influence of giant planets and, in addition, small fluctuations of the solar constant can lead to long-term changes in global temperature observed from the middle of the century before last. The periods of slow oscillations leading to such changes are investigated and physically justified. It is shown that the oscillatory model of long-term changes in global temperature is significantly more effective than the trend one. In addition, it is shown that random fluctuations, more than an order of magnitude inferior to those observed in the experiment with high probability can form a seeming (diffusion) trend of global temperature, not inferior to the assumed in the framework of the anthropogenic version of the so-called "global warming".
|
