Publishing House SB RAS:

Publishing House SB RAS:

Address of the Publishing House SB RAS:
Morskoy pr. 2, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia

Advanced Search

Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics

2019 year, number 4

Verification of aircraft icing forecast based on the atmospheric radiometry remote method

V.V. Zuev1,2, D.P. Mordus1,3, A.V. Pavlinskii1
1Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 634055, Tomsk, 10/3, Academichesky ave
2National Research Tomsk State University, 36, Lenin Avenue, Tomsk, 634050,Russia
3Aviamettelekoma Roshydromet, 1, Deputatskaya, Novosibirsk, 630099, Russia
Keywords: обледенения воздушных судов, предупрежденность наличия явления, успешность прогноза, формула Годске, модель Шульца-Политович, aircraft icing, phenomenon presence warning, forecast accuracy, the Godske formula, the Schulz-Politovich model


The results of verification of the aircraft icing forecast based on the remote method for determining the areas of potential icing in the lower kilometer layer, are presented. The evaluation was carried out on the basis of the calculation of the presence warning of the dangerous meteorological phenomenon, in this case, the icing of the aircraft. The method of calculating of the phenomenon presence warning, which corresponds to the method used in the aviation forecasting units for the calculation of accuracy, is described. The proposed method takes into account not only time but also height. The calculations showed that the proposed remote method successfully predicted aircraft icing hazard, both using the Godske formula and the Schulz-Politovich model.