The Dynamics of Demographic Risks in Siberia: a Multiregional Analysis
S.V. SOBOLEVA, N.YE. SMIRNOVA, O.V. CHUDAEVA
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: воспроизводство населения, депопуляция, старение населения, демографическая безопасность, индикаторы демографических угроз, интегральный показатель демографической безопасности, reproduction of the population, depopulation, ageing of the population, demographic security, demographic threat indicators, integrated index of demographic security
Abstract
The article discusses a methodological approach to analyzing the dynamics of the demographic situation with individual indicators from several territorial objects, which allow assessing each territory according to how tense its demographic situation is. To conduct this analysis, we have selected a few demographic threat factors showing the dynamics in all the regions of the Siberian Federal District against nationwide trends. An important part of the work is creating an integral index of demographic security (IIDS) based on the analyzed indicators, which may help to identify problem areas with low demographic security and relatively prosperous regions. Having compared the IIDS dynamics for all the subjects in the Siberian Federal District, we were the first to distinguish three groups of regions by their level of demographic security for the period of1990-2012. The article shows that almost all regions with a low level of demographic security are located along the state border. The IIDS can be used in demographic policy-making at both regional and federal levels in order to decide on managerial actions on demographic security.
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