Home – Home – Jornals – Siberian Journal of Forest Science 2014 number 5

In 2001 six permanent sample plots (PSP) were established in forest stands differing in degrees of damage by pollution from the Norilsk industrial region. In 2004 the second forest inventory was carried out at these PSP for evaluation of pollutant impacts on stand condition changes. During both inventory procedures the vigor state of every tree was visually categorized according to 6-points scale of «Forest health regulations in Russian Federation». The changeover of tree into fall was also taken into account. Two types of Markov’s models simulating thinning process in tree stands within different ecological conditions has been developed: 1) based on assessment for probability of tree survival during three years; 2) in terms of evaluation of matrix for probability on change of vigor state category in the same period. The reconstruction of tree mortality from 1979 after industrial complex «Nadezda» setting into operation was realized on the basis of probability estimation of dead standing trees conservation during three years observed. The forecast of situation was carried out up to 2030. Using logistic regression the probability of tree survival was established depending on four factors: degree of tree damage by pollutants, tree species, stand location in relief and tree age. The acquired results make it possible to single out an impact of pollutants to tree stands’ resistance from other factors. There was revealed the percent of tree fall, resulted by pollution. The evaluation scale of SO₂ gas resistance of tree species was constructed: birch, spruce, larch. Larch showed the highest percent of fall because of pollution.