Spatiotemporal Changes in the Dynamics of Ice-Rich Coasts of the East Siberian Sea: Results of Mathematical Modeling
S.O. Razumov, M.N. Grigoriev
Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yakutsk, Russia
Keywords: icy-rich coast, rate of thermal abrasion, air temperature of the ice-free period, zero-dimensional and one-dimensional models
Abstract
Spatiotemporal changes in the rate of thermoabrasion of the shores of the East Siberian Sea have been studied on the basis of measurement data and formulated zero-dimensional and one-dimensional mathematical models. The results indicate that the rate of thermoabrasion of ice-rich coasts in the western part of the sea decreases from south to north. The reason for this is a decrease in the duration of thermal abrasion northward because of the negative meridional air temperature gradient during the ice-free period. The zero-dimensional model indicates that climate warming with an increase in air temperature of the ice-free period by 1 °C increases the rate of thermоabrasion of the shores by 1.84 times independently from the latitude of the studied coastal areas. According to the one-dimensional model, the influence of positive air temperatures on the development of coastal cryogenic processes decreases at higher latitudes. As a result, the response of ice-rich coasts to changes in air temperature of the ice-free period weakens by three times in the northern part of the coast compared to the southern part.
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