Cartographic visualization of the expected change in the southern permafrost limit in Western Siberia
N.M. Berdnikov
Tyumen Research Centre, Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen, Russia
Keywords: southern permafrost limit, cartographic model, climate change, permafrost degradation from surface, annual temperature fluctuations layer
Abstract
In the context of modern climate change, permafrost degradation from the surface takes place in Western Siberia. This is manifested by an increase in temperature and a decrease in the area of distribution and thickness of frozen layers. To establish the rate of reduction in permafrost area, a cartographic model was created to predict the change in the position of its southern limit by the middle of the 21st century. Based on temperature, ice content, rock composition, and section structure data, permafrost areas were ranked concerning the thawing rate of the upper 10-m-thick permafrost layer. It was found that the expected change in the southern limit of permafrost in Western Siberia will be uneven and dependent on the local conditions related to the cryolithogenic foundation of the landscape.
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