Emergent properties of the climate system. Derivatives of the mean annual temperature at meteorological stations in the Northern Hemisphere
V.A. Tartakovsky, N.N. Cheredko, V.G. Maksimov
Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Tomsk, Russia
Keywords: climate change monitoring, emergent properties, climate system
Abstract
The average annual temperature derivatives analysis was carried out according to the data of 927 weather stations of the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1956-2016. Changes in derivatives are considered as manifestations of the emergent property of a holistic climate system. A measure of these manifestations has been introduced. The measure has a functional form, including averaging positive and negative derivatives and calculating the correlation coefficients along weather stations. The extrema of the derivative temperatures are determined; it is found that the sample distribution of the sums of the opposite extrema of the derivatives is symmetric and has a greater kurtosis than the normal distribution. In the study period, the values of the measure are already close to their limiting values. At that, the climate system's equilibrium state is preserved, while regional fluctuations of individual climate elements have increased. Therefore, an annual assessment of changes in the multichannel monitoring system's measure of emergent properties is required.
|
