IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN INSOLATION CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG-TERM SEA ICE EXTENT DYNAMICS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
V.M. Fedorov, P.B. Grebennikov
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, Leninskie Gorу 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia
Keywords: Sea ice extent, seasonal, interannual and multi-year variability, insolation, insolation contrast, correlation analysis, Northern Sea Route, solar climate theоry
Abstract
A correlation analysis of long-term dynamics of sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere involving calculations of insolation characteristics with high spatial resolution was performed. The revealed close negative relationships between multi-year variations in sea ice extent, winter insolation and irradiance contrast were calculated in model cells with resolution of 1° x 1° for the period 1901-2018. The linkage density maps have been constructed to analyze relationships between multi-year changes in sea ice extent and insolation characteristics based on annual, semi-annual and monthly (March, September) means of sea ice extent. It is revealed that the correlation between multi-year variations in sea ice spatial distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and insolation contrast is interpreted as cause and effect relationship, while insolation contrast can be used as a predictor in statistical models for the sea ice extent dynamics. A close relationship between spatial distribution of sea ice and insolation contrast throughout the entire Northern Sea Route has been determined. This gives a perspective for long-term forecasting of the sea ice extent for the Northern Sea Route based on calculations of the intensity of insolation contrast for the Northern Hemisphere.
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