Numerical experiments on the forecast of ice phenomena
R.Yu. Ignatov1, K.G. Rubinstein1,2, Yu.I. Yusupov3
a:2:{s:4:"TYPE";s:4:"HTML";s:4:"TEXT";s:264:"1Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
2Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia
3Limited Liability Company Scientific Production Association «Map Maiker», Moscow, Russia";}
Keywords: прогноз гололеда, Центральный регион России, WRF-ARW, forecast of ice, central region of Russia
Abstract
Methods and results of numerical forecast of ice phenomena over the territory of the central Russia for winters 2003-2018 are presented. The forecast success is compared using the analysis of precipitation types and the heat balance model, where the predictions of the WRF-ARW model are used as input. Some advantages of forecasts using a heat-balanced model are shown. It is suggested to develop an integral method in the future.
|
