MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF WATER LEVEL DEPENDENCE IN THE OB RIVER FROM THE DISCHARGE OF WATER TO HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION
A.V. Logachov1,2, O.M. Logachova1,2, P.A. Karpik3
1Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
2Siberian State University of Geosystems and Technologies, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
3Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
Keywords: прогноз паводка, стохастическая модель, Probit модель, регрессионный анализ, flood forecast, stochastic model, Probit model, regression analysis
Abstract
The dependence of the average water level in the Ob River at the Novosibirsk water post on the discharge rate to a hydroelectric power station is being investigated. The stochastic approach is used to model this dependence. As a result of the analysis of an array of statistical data a two-component mathematical model has been obtained. The simultaneous use of the Probit probability determination model and the construction of a regression straight line result in a nonlinear relationship between the water level and the discharge rate, which allows for a more accurate flood forecast.
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