PREDICTIVE ESTIMATES OF THE PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MANAGERIAL WORK AND THE ROLES OF MANAGERS IN THE 2020-2030s
A.V. Tebekin, T.N. Vasilyuk
Odintsovo branch of Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Оdintsovo, Russian Federation
Keywords: прогнозные оценки, перспективы развития, управленческий труд, роли менеджеров, 2020-2030-е годы, forecast estimates, development prospects, managerial work, roles of managers, 2020-2030s
Abstract
The directions and prospects for the development of managerial work and the roles of managers during the change of the fifth technological paradigm to the sixth one, expected in the 2020s, and during the beginning of the development of the sixth technological paradigm, expected in the 2030s, are analyzed. Based on expert assessments, the dynamics of managerial roles allocated by Henry Mintzberg was evaluated, including the roles of: manager, figurehead, leader, liaison, information receiver, information distributor, representative, entrepreneur, conflict and problem tamer, resource distributor, negotiator. The general forecast of the expected dynamics of interpersonal management roles, information management roles and management roles associated with decision-making expected in the 2020-2030s is presented. The forecast was made on the basis of the consideration of objective laws of changes in management concepts associated with the small (10-year) cycles of economic activity by K. Zhuglyar within the framework of large (50-year) cycles of economic activity by Kondratiev, focusing on the concept of the combinatorial approach to management, expected to be dominating in the 2020s, and on the management concept based on the use of human capital, expected as the basis for the economy of the 2030s. It is shown that the actualization of the majority of the roles of managers allocated according to G. Mintzbeng's classification, is expected during the global economic crisis of the 2020s. It is predicted that in the 2020s during the period of the global economic crisis, the following managerial roles in the organization will be most demanded (according to G. Mintzberg): the role of liaison, the role of information receiver and the role of conflict and problem tamer. It is also predicted that in the 2030s, during the period of the beginning of economic activity growth within the framework of the sixth technological order, the most demanded managerial roles in the organization (according to G. Mintzberg) will be: the role of a leader, the role of information disseminator and the role of entrepreneur.
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