Tools for Justifying the Parameters of Strategic Regional Development Based on Adaptive Simulation
R.V. FATTAKHOV1, M.M. NIZAMUTDINOV2, V.V. ORESHNIKOV2
1Financial University affiliated with the Government of the Russian Federation, Leningradsky av., 49, Moscow, 125993, Russia
2Institute for Socio-Economic Research, Ufa Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Oktyabrya av., 71, Ufa, 450054, Russia
Keywords: адаптивно-имитационное моделирование, регион, прогноз, экономическая политика, сценарии развития, adaptive simulation, region, forecast, economic policy, development scenarios
Subsection: Economic Issues of Regional Development
Abstract
The article considers an approach to creating an adaptive simulation model of the regional socio-economic system. This approach involves three fundamental levels (economic agents, management, and macro-environment) and lies upon a coherent adaptation of both agents' behavior strategies and control actions aimed at changing the economic situation. We used the following research tools: systems analysis, methods of economic and mathematical modeling, methods of statistical, structural, and dynamic analysis, methods of correlation and regression analysis, and fuzzy logic. The approach was tested on data from the Republic of Bashkortostan. The assessment of scenario forecasting for regional development, presented in the article, substantiates the preference for adaptive strategies. Following the analysis of model runs, we determined areas of focus to promote regional socio-economic development. Such economic and mathematical models can be used in forecasting the socio-economic development of territorial systems and evaluating the impact of various government policies. The proposed approach allows for simulation experiments if they regard for matching resource capabilities and interests of not only individual economic agents but also the control subsystem of a regional socio-economic system within a single methodology, procedural, and computational framework.
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