ENERGY BALANCE FORECAST: METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR FORMATION
I.P. Mamiy, M.A. Ivashchenko
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Lenin Hills, 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia
Keywords: энергетическая статистика, топливно-энергетический баланс, прогнозный топливно-энергетический баланс, энергетический сектор, энергетическая стратегия России-2035, energy statistics, energy balance, energy balance forecast, energy sector, Russian energy strategy-2035
Abstract
The Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2035 defines the range of tasks for the reorganization of the energy sector of the country. To achieve these goals it is necessary to improve public information and statistical base. Statistical model of the energy balance of Russia could be an effective tool. Existing energy balance forecasts are based on the scientific analysis of the Russian energy sector. However, they represent only an illustration of the positive scenario of development of the Russian economy. A new approach to formation of energy balance forecast taking into account the shortcomings of pure mathematical modeling is suggested. Analysis of existing trends, determination of invariant trends and identification of possible scenarios and forecasts for the energy sector is offered.
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