APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF LAND COVER DYNAMICS USING CHANGE DETECTION AND SPATIAL STOCHASTIC MODELING
A. V. Zamyatin1, A. A. Afanasyev2, P. Cabral3
1Tomsk State University, pr. Lenins 36, Tomsk 634050, Russia
2Tomsk Polytechnic University, pr. Lenina 30, Tomsk 634050, Russia
3NOVA IMS, New University of Lisbon, Lisbon, 1070-312 Portugal
Keywords: ландшафтный покров, идентификация изменений, стохастическое моделирование, клеточный автомат, пространственное прогнозирование, динамика ландшафта, land cover, change detection, stochastic simulation, cellular automata, spatial prediction, land cover dynamics
Abstract
The important problem of land cover dynamics analysis is considered. We propose a multistep approach using methods of land cover change detection and an original method for evaluating the scale of changes is proposed. Applying this approach to a large archive of multi-temporal aerospace monitoring data makes it possible to choose only large-scale changes in land cover that deserve a more careful expert examination, and as a consequence, to perform a more rapid and comprehensive aerospace monitoring. The approach has been tested on problems of analyzing the land cover dynamics in Portugal under the LANDYN international research project. This paper presents some estimates of the scale of changes in the study area and results of long-term modeling of the development of the area, including alternative conditional scenarios.
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