Analysis of electoral preferences of residents of the northern districts of Eastern Siberia
P.L. POPOV, A.A. CHERENEV, A.V. IGNATOV
V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia
Keywords: prerequisites for support, political parties, multivariate models, statistical dependence, regression analysis, socio-economic characteristics of the voter
Abstract
This article analyzes the survey data for residents of the northern municipal districts of Eastern Siberia. Respondents were asked questions regarding their political behavior, socio-economic status, gender, age, and quality of life. Based on the consideration for ethnic homogeneity and the predominance of the old-timer population, which determine the greater reliability of the results, it was found that in Siberia the most suitable territory for research are the regions of Eastern Siberia equated to the regions of the Far North. Based on the results of field studies using sequential regression analysis algorithms, a group of the most significant predictors included in multifactorial models of electoral preference was identified. The use of such models, in comparison with one-factor models, makes it possible to more accurately assess the expected results of elections. Statistically significant features of the respondents’ electoral preferences are revealed. In particular, it is shown that men are more inclined to choose the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and “other parties”. Three-quarters of the women polled are in favor of United Russia, and industrial workers, compared with other groups of the population, are much less likely to support this party. It has been established that age as a factor influencing the electoral choice is, most likely, an indicator of the influence of other factors. Parametric portraits of typical supporters of the main political parties are compiled.
|
