Home – Home – Jornals – Region: Economics and Sociology 2023 number 1

The article briefly describes the natural population movement in Russia between 1980 and 2021 with an emphasis on the depopulation processes of the post-Soviet period. The root cause of depopulation is insufficient fertility to replace generations over a long time. The number of births is determined by the number of female reproductive cohorts and their age structure in addition to the per-woman fertility. The study presents the features of the dynamics of these indicators for childbearing-age women by constituent entities in the context of all-Russian trends. Demographic analysis of dynamic series distinguishing the populations of urban and rural areas has been used as a research method, with its information base being Rosstat data for 1980-2021. It is shown that the number of women of reproductive age, especially in rural areas, was decreasing faster than the total population of Russia. At the same time, nationwide, the number of women in the most fertile age groups of 20 to 34 years declined even more rapidly. The sharpest negative trends in the sizes of the considered cohorts were manifested in the Far Eastern Federal District, which has long been experiencing an outflow of migrants. In addition to the reduction in the total number of women aged 15-49 in Russia, their age structure also changed: the number and proportion of young women decreased in both the cities and in the countryside, while women of older reproductive ages with much lower fertility rates, on the contrary, became more prevalent. A particularly strong decline in numbers due to extremely low fertility in the 1990s was recorded in the most reproductively active age group of 25 to 29 years. As a result of such quantitative and qualitative changes associated with the long-term decline and aging of women of reproductive age, the country’s prospects of exiting lingering depopulation by increasing the number of births are severely complicated. This complexity is even greater given the dramatic increase in the number of deaths from 2020 due to the spread of coronavirus. Thus, the natural population decline in 2021, record-breaking for the entire post-Soviet period, reinforces an extremely negative trend towards further depopulation in Russia and its regions with the corresponding consequences for the future of the country, its socio-economic development, geopolitical status, and national security. The results of the study may be useful for the legislative and executive authorities when shaping and adjusting demographic policy and socio-economic development strategies.