Modeling of shoreline changes and assessment of the influence of Lake Baikal water level fluctuations on settlements along the eastern coast
A.A. AYURZHANAEV1, E.Zh. GARMAEV1, B.Z. TSYDYPOV1, B.V. SODNOMOV1, V.N. CHERNYKH1, Zh.B. ALYMBAEVA1, M.A. ZHARNIKOVA1, A.G. SUPRUNENKO1, S.G. ANDREEV1, B.O. GURZHAPOV1, E.A. BATOTSYRENOV1, S.A. SAT1, A.K. TULOKHONOV1, T.K. SALIKHOV2
1Baikal Institute of Nature Management, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulan-Ude, Russia
2A. Myrzakhmetov Kokshetau University, Kokshetau, Kazakhstan
Keywords: Lake Baikal, extremely high level, digital elevation mapping, flood zones, unique natural sites
Abstract
In conditions of extremely low- and high-water years, the boundary conditions for the level regime of Lake Baikal as established by resolution of the RF Government No. 234 of 3.26.2001 (within 456-457 m according to the Pacific Elevation System, PES) cannot be complied with objectively for a number of reasons. An objective assessment of the influence of the water level on the socio-economic and ecological state of the coastal territories requires a modeling of the position of the shoreline with its different levels. On the basis of an analytical overview of publications, we compiled a list of settlements located along the eastern coast of Lake Baikal which are experiencing the negative influence of water level fluctuations. Information regarding the existence of unique natural sites and a well-developed touristic-recreational infrastructure was also included. Field and laboratory work was made on modeling the characteristics of the topography of model territories involving high-precision aerial photographic imaging from an unmanned aerial vehicle, and the creation of orthophotomaps and digital elevation models. Flood zones of the coastal areas of Lake Baikal were constructed for extremely high levels of water surface (457.25, 457.50, and 457.85 m PES). We compiled the list of natural sites within the flood zone: nesting sites of rare species of the avifauna and rare and endangered plant species included in the Red Data Books of the Republic of Buryatia and Russia. The possible negative effect on the ichthyofauna of the aquatic ecosystem of the Posol’skii Sor Bay is pointed out. The negative consequences of the high water level in Lake Baikal also imply coastal forest dieback due to abrasion processes affecting the shores. The results obtained by modeling efforts can serve as a basis for calculating the potential damage to economic and ecological systems of model territories.
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