RUSSIA’S NEW DEMOGRAPHIC CRISIS AND ITS RURAL-URBAN PROJECTION (Case Study of the Republic of Tatarstan)
D.O. Egorov1,2
1Center for Family and Demography, Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, Kazan, Russia
2Center of Advanced Economic Research, Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, Kazan, Russia
Keywords: естественный прирост, рождаемость, смертность, пронаталистская политика, демографическая политика, материнский капитал, население, молодежь, natural increase, birth rate, death rate, pronatalist policy, population policy, maternal capital, population, youth
Abstract
The article analyzes the birth and death rates in the Republic of Tatarstan over the recent years from the standpoint of their impact on the region’s rate of natural increase. It also evaluates the reasons behind the period of local demographic prosperity in 2010-2016. The author’s calculations and arguments show that it is impossible to speak about a direct impact of pronatalist policies on these events. The most significant effect seems to be a temporary positive impact of market changes in the age-gender population pyramid. We propose major action areas in the socio-economic policy for reducing mortality, from the standpoint of identifying diseases that lead to the most fatalities among the working-age population (circulatory system diseases and deaths due to external causes). The article predicts a new stage of natural population decline in the region as the small generation born in the 1990s will be entering their most fertile age. In rural areas, the crisis will further worsen and become more complicated with several positional factors and the mechanical “hollowing-out” due to the outflow of young people.
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