REGIONAL SPECIFICATION FOR MACROECONOMICTARGETS IN RUSSIA’S DEVELOPMENT FORECAST
S.A. Suspitsyn
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: экономика федерализма, математические модели, прогнозы, стратегическое планирование, регионы, Сибирь, federalism economy, mathematical models, forecasts, strategic planning, regions, Siberia
Abstract
The article discusses an approach to setting up the problem of how to coordinate national and regional decisions in federative economies with competences and resources distributed between levels. The author has suggested and experimentally tested a methodology of spreading summary indicators of the country’s social and economic development to the regional level. Through the lens of examining 32 Russian macro-regions, we obtain regional estimates for the key parameters in the forecast made by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation until 2024, i.e. labor productivity and investment share in GDP. Similar estimates are produced for the constituent entities in the Siberian Federal District. The proposed methodology relies on a particular solution to the general problem of lossless data compression and can be further elaborated in multiple areas of focus: extension of consolidated sectoral solutions, estimates for the impact of aggregate resource conditions on the structure of a detailed regional development scenario, alternative formulations of problems of how to optimize sectoral proportions in the development of the national economy and regions, etc.
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