INFLUENCE OF MONETARY POLICY ON INVESTMENTS IN THE MACROREGION OF SIBERIA
A.A. Shevelev1, M.I. Kvaktun2, K.S. Virovets2
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Siberian Main Branch of the Central Bank of Russia, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: денежно-кредитная политика, инвестиции, ставка межбанковского рынка, структурная векторная авторегрессия, функции импульсных откликов, monetary policy, investment, interbank market rate, structural vector autoregression, impulse response functions
Abstract
In this paper, we evaluate the impact of monetary policy on investment in Siberian regions. At the first stage of the study, we have assessed the regional investment responses to changes in the interbank market rate using structural vector autoregression. At the second stage, regression equations have been calculated with accumulated impulse responses as dependent variables and assumed explanatory factors as independent ones. Regions with a larger share of manufacturing and small businesses and a higher ratio of exports to GRP are found to be more affected by rising monetary policy rates than regions with fewer small firms, more diversified industries, and a lower export component in GRP. It is also discovered that factors such as the share of small businesses in the regions and the ratio of exports to GRP explain the differences in the responses of regional investments to the shock of monetary policy better than the share of manufacturing in GRP. Furthermore, it is revealed that the higher the risk level at the local enterprises, the greater the decrease in investment with monetary tightening measures in place. Differences in the efficiency of monetary instruments application for Siberia’s regions should be considered when developing regional economic policy. For example, the losses in regions where monetary tightening leads to a greater decline in investment can be compensated through fiscal policies.
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