Astronomic factors in the long-term evolution of the Earth’s climate
I.V. Dvoretskaya1, G.M. Kruchenitsky2, G.G. Matvienko3, I.I. Stanevich4
1Ukraine Institute of Hydrometerology, 37, prospect Nauki, 03680, Ukraine, Kyiv г. Киев, просп. Науки, 37, Украина
2Central Aerological Observatory, ul. Pervomayskaya, 3, Dolgoprudnyiy g., Mosk. Obl., 141700, Russia
3V.E. Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, 1, Academician Zuev square, Tomsk, 634021, Russia
4Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, per. Institutskii, 9, Dolgoprudnyiy g., Mosk. Obl., 141700, Russia
Keywords: climate, global warming, dynamic modeling, relative greenhouse gas efficiency, tidal effects, Earth’s orbit degeneration
Abstract
The concept of the dependence of observed global climatic changes on anthropogenic factors is analyzed. The limitations of modern approaches to global climate modeling are shown to be unremovable, which makes it impossible to arrive at grounded enough conclusions and predictions. An alternative parameter-reduced energy balance model of the global temperature is proposed, and the relative contribution of basic greenhouse gases to global temperature variability is estimated based on this model. A list of factors, including astronomic ones, to be additionally allowed for in analyzing and diagnosing the observed long-term changes in the mean global temperature is substantiated.
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