ON THE ISSUE OF THE CRITERION OF EFFICIENCY OF LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN THE SITUATION OF UNCERTAINTY (BY THE EXAMPLE OF RAILROAD TRANSPORT)
Evgeniy B. Kibalov1, Konstantin P. Glushchenko1,2
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
2Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
Keywords: investment project, efficiency, uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis, global optimum
Abstract
The article discusses the criteria of efficiency used in the assessment of investment projects. The objects of interest are large-scale projects which have a significant influence on life of the country (not only economic), such as large railroad projects in the first place. The criteria of microeconomic level (typical of the methodology of the cost-benefit analysis) and macroeconomic level, when a project is analyzed in the context of economy of the country in general, are considered. It is shown that the principal problem of efficiency of large-scale projects both at micro- and macrolevel is fundamental uncertainty.
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