COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS IN THE EVALUATION OF LARGE RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: AKADEMGORODOK 2.0
T.S. Novikova1,2, O.I. Gulakova1,2, Yu.S. Ershov3
1Institute of Eco-nomics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Acade-my of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Novosibirsk National Research State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
3Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: research infrastructure projects, cost-benefit analysis, financial and economic model, optimization multiregional input-output model, economic public efficiency, state support
Abstract
This article examines the evolution of cost-benefit analysis methods in line with advancements in science and technology. It proposes a comprehensive set of interconnected models that combine an expanded financial and economic model as their basis, an optimization multiregional input-output model, along with detailed financial and economic models for individual subprojects and econometric models for some public effects. These models are utilized to evaluate the efficiency of large-scale investment projects. The study then focuses on four scenarios of technological changes and presents the calculation formulas for each key stage. Using these methods, the research assesses, for the first time, the performance indicators of “Akademgorodok 2.0, " a large-scale real project with a 2013-2030 timeline and an investment of 299 billion rubles. When considering constant 2013 prices, a cost-benefit analysis reveals a net discounted income of800 billion rubles at a 7% discount rate, or 1964 billion rubles without discounting. These figures demonstrate that the project’s financial, economic, and budgetary efficiency indicators align with evaluations of similar mega science installations in Europe.
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