SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL SHIFTS DYNAMICS IN ECONOMIES OF RUSSIAN REGIONS FROM 2004 TO 2019
L.V. Melnikova1,2
1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Novosibirsk National Research State University, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: structural shifts, shift-share analysis, gross value added, employment, local competitiveness, interregional interactions
Abstract
The article is devoted to studying differences in regional economic growth models identified with the shift-share technique to decompose growth structurally, which allows explaining a regional growth rate deviation (“shift") from the expected values under the assumption that all regions have identical sectoral structures. As required by the original formulation of this analysis method, such a shift is decomposed into sectoral (compositional) and regional (competitive) components. We divide the regional shift into components defined by the effects of potential spatial spillover and local competitiveness through a spatial approach. The economic activity indicators are gross value added and average annual employment in the fourteen-sector nomenclature across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We carry out the analysis in a dynamic setting over the period between 2004 and 2019. According to its results, the decisive contribution to regional differentiation in growth rates has been an inherent competitive effect, measured by a regional shift and arising from the same industry performing dissimilarly in several regions. The spatial decomposition of regional growth rates has separated the contribution of the region’s inherent competitiveness from that of its local environment. The first factor dominates, meaning that the regional (competitive) shift in most regions, regardless of its sign, has resulted from a local competitive effect rather than the spatial spillover of economic growth.
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