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Geography and Natural Resources

2021 year, number 1

REGULARITIES AND MODELS OF VARIABILITY IN USEFUL INFLOW INTO LAKE BAIKAL

A.V. Ignatov1, N.N. Zavalishin2
1V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 664033, Irkutsk, ul. Ulan-Batorskaya, 1, Russia
2Siberian Regional Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, 630009, Novosibirsk, ul. Sovetskaya, 30
Keywords: useful inflow, regularities of inflow variability, stochastic modeling, solution stability, forecast

Abstract

An attempt has been made to construct models that approximate the time-series statistical properties of the useful inflow into Lake Baikal and its relationships with potential predictors permitting predictive assessments to be obtained. The solution of the problem consists of two parts. In the first part, physical and statistical models are constructed, which reflect the known regularities of the formation of runoff from the catchment. These patterns are manifested in the presence of significant regression relationships between the predicted value of the monthly inflow and its hydrometeorological predictors. The models thus constructed can be used to forecast the average useful inflow for the next month. The predictive correction for interannual variability to the seasonal wave of the inflow in these models is formed by taking into account such a variability in the values of the predictors known at the time of forecasting. The second part of the research is devoted to the study of the presence of possible trends and cycles in the interannual variability in useful inflow in the most water-abundant third quarter of the year in order to try to predict it with a lead time of a year or more. It is shown that various models of cycles with parameters estimated by using of the training sample do not provide the stability of the solution on the control sample. The best result was shown by a cyclical model with fixed periods, reflecting the possible impact on the inflow variability provided by gravitational influence of the Moon and major planets on the Earth and the Sun. Nevertheless, this model cannot also be considered statistically significant due to the small share of the explainable variance and the data deficit on useful inflow into Baikal.