Spatial monitoring of recent ecological situation in localities of Vaviloviaformosa (Fabaceae) based on data of predictive climatic modeling
K. S. Baikov1, D. A. Krivenko2, R. A. Murtazaliev3, V. V. Murashko2, E. V. Baikova1
1Central Siberian Botanical Garden of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Siberian Institute of Plant Physiology and Biochemistry of SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia
3Mountain Botanical Garden of the Dagestan Scientific Centre, Makhachkala, Russia
Keywords: spatial monitoring, environmental assessment
Abstract
Spatial monitoring was carried out and the ecological situation was experimentally assessed in local populations of plants of the relict endemic species V. formosa , according to the climate modeling of the range carried out by the method of maximum entropy. Plants of this species live exclusively in the highlands on open ungrounded shale screes in the glacial zones and distributed sporadically in the mountain systems of Taurus, Armenian Highlands, the Caucasus and Elburz. V. formosa is a very rare species, as a result of which it is listed in the state Red Books of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as numerous regional Red Books. The limiting factors determining its rarity were not previously reliably established, which necessitated the assessment of the environmental situation at the same time at all points of growth of this species according to climate modeling. An original technique has been developed for assessing the environmental situation in and around localities, with the following gradations highlighted: favorable, unfavorable, and ambivalent. A quantitative method of such an assessment (in points) is proposed. As a result, the territories with the more favorable climatic conditions for local populations of V. formosa were identified. The ecological situations directly in localities were assessed as slightly favorable for 11 local populations, unfavorable for 23 local populations, and ambivalent for 36 local populations. Such technique for decoding the ecological situation around localities according to climate modeling is proposed here for the first time in world practice. It is aimed at obtaining the most accurate formalized information about the climatic situation in each locality and in each cell of the nest surrounding the locality, within the full range of the species. To formalize the description of a specific climatic situation, it is proposed to use the color scale of rasters generated in the MAXENT computer program. 1 point was assigned for loci that are under the influence of the negative complex of climatic factors (blue segment of the spectrum); 2 points for loci that are under the neutral influence (green segment of the spectrum); 3 points for loci that are under the positive (favorable) influence of climatic factors (yellow-red segment of the spectrum).
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