Conditions for the formation and short-term forecasting of hazardous weather events in the Ural region in the warm period of 2020
N.A. Kalinin, A.N. Shikhov, A.V. Bykov, A.A. Pomortseva, R.K. Abdullin, I.O. Azhigov
Perm State National Research University, Perm, Russia
Keywords: convective hazardous weather events, short-term forecast, WRF model, global atmospheric models, ingredient-based approach, explicit simulation of convection
Abstract
The conditions for the formation are considered and the short-term forecast accuracy is estimated for six convective hazardous weather events or outbreaks occurred in the Urals and eastern part of European Russia in the warm period of 2020. Information on large hail, heavy rainfall, squalls, and tornadoes has been compiled from several data sources; it includes data from weather stations, damage reports, and analysis of forest cover disturbances based on Sentinel-2 satellite images. The short-term forecasts were derived by the ingredient-based approach based on GFS and GEM global atmospheric models and explicit simulation of convection using the WRF mesoscale atmospheric model.
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