Changes in the Size and Sex-Age Structure of the Population in the Siberian Federal District and Its Regions From 1989 to 2017: Impact Assessment and Risks
S.V. SOBOLEVA, N.E. SMIRNOVA, O.V. CHUDAEVA
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia
Keywords: депопуляция, миграционный отток, половозрастная структура населения, рождаемость, ожидаемая продолжительность жизни, старение населения, демографическая нагрузка, коэффициент замещения, depopulation, migration outflow, sex-age structure of the population, fertility, life expectancy, population ageing, demographic load, replacement rate
Abstract
The article presents a comparative analysis on the dynamics of the size and sex-age structure of the population in the Siberian Federal district and its regions within modern Russian trends, as well as an impact assessment regarding their changes and risks for socio-economic development in the future. We used the multi-regional demographic analysis of time series as a research method. The study was conducted distinguishing the population of urban and rural settlements, with its information base comprised of Rosstat data for 1989-2017. The article shows that, against the background of a general decline in the SFD population, especially in rural areas, negative trends in the sex-age structure of the population manifested themselves in the reduced pre-working age population considering their numbers and proportion, in the transition from working-age population increase to a more rapid decline compared to nationwide figures, in the rising rates of growth in the size and proportion of the post-working age population. This leads to the aging of the entire population and its working-age segment, to an increase in the demographic load on the working age population, to sexual asymmetry, to reduced numbers and aging of fertile women. Such long-term changes pose a threat not only to the demographic potential but also to the socio-economic development and future both of the region and the country.
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