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2019 year, number 2

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF ESTIMATION OF PATHOLOGY PREVALENCE AMONG THE POPULATION AS AN ELEMENT OF IMPROVEMENT OF SOCIAL AND HYGIENIC MONITORING

Anatoly Ivanovich BABENKO1, Yury Iosifovich BRAVVE2, Vladimir Pavlovich NOVOSELOV3, Andrey Leonidovich TOMCHUK4, Evgeny Anatolyevich BABENKO1
1Research Institute for Complex Problems of Hygiene and Occupational Diseases
2City Clinical Hospital No. 1
3Novosibirsk Regional Clinical Bureau of Forensic Medical Expert Examination
4State Novosibirsk Regional Medical Exercises Dispensary
Keywords: социально-гигиенический мониторинг, аналитические модели, патологическая пораженность, social and hygienic monitoring, analytical models, pathological prevalence

Abstract

The inclusion of an indicator of pathological prevalence is considered as an element of improvement of social and hygienic monitoring. This criterion allows considering donosological state of the human body and complexity of the development of pathological processes. Material and methods. It is offered to use information data bases of the regional diagnostic centers and bureau of forensic medical expert examination for determination of pathology prevalence among the population. The prevalence of pathological lesions is established on the materials of the researches conducted earlier, including the analysis of appeal ability of patients to the diagnostic center (for 3 years - 496.5 thousand), realization of diagnostic technologies, the results of the necropsy of 35.8 thousand of the deceased at the bureau of forensic medical expert examination and their comparison with the indices of incidence and mortality. Results. Analytical models with the use of the methods of modeling and plotting are elaborated. The models include all necessary technological stages in the use of information data bases of medical institutions where the mass diagnosis of pathology with the sufficient level of its revealing is possible. Application of these models has allowed defining the importance of separate methods of diagnostics for the assessment of the disease incidence rate, functional and morphological deviations and also the presence of the pathological processes leading to a lethal outcome and the prevalence of pathological organ lesions. It forms a basis for determination of prospects of realization not only diagnostic and medical technologies, but also preventive ones. Conclusion. It is expedient to include the analytical models presented in the paper in the general system of estimates of social and hygienic monitoring for identifying cause-effect relations with the factors of the habitat, assessment of population importance of separate risk factors and calculation of potential demand for medical technologies. The analytical model is developed for definition of strategic positions in public health protection taking into account these information blocks.