Home – Home – Jornals – Russian Geology and Geophysics 2019 number 3

The dynamics of the energy structure of seismicity on the southwestern flank of the Baikal Rift System (BRS) was analyzed at three hierarchical levels based on annual and accumulated total data on KP ≥ 8 earthquakes that took place in 1964-2013. The state changes are characterized by three main parameters: the maximum energy class (Kmax), the slope of the earthquake recurrence plot (γ), and seismic activity A10. With an increase in the period and number of analyzed earthquakes, the parameters reach the limiting values reflecting stable regularities in the long-term distribution of shocks by classes. Two attractors are recognized in the phase pattern, which reflect the total quasi-stationary state (limit cycle) and local instability (focus) of the energy structure of seismicity. The specifics of the attractor formation suggest that the dynamics of the system includes a cycle birth bifurcation (Andronov-Hopf bifurcation). For a detailed analysis of the dynamics of formation of the energy structure of seismicity, we calculated the slopes of the earthquake recurrence plots in the model scenarios of “aftershock” and “swarm” series of shocks. Comparison of the model and real changes in the slopes shows that the “aftershock” model corresponds to the dynamics of the energy structure of seismicity of the lithosphere on the southwestern flank of the BRS.