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Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics

2019 year, number 1

Conditions of occurrence and short-term forecast of strong squalls and tornadoes in European Russia

N.A. Kalinin, A.N. Shikhov, A.V. Bykov, I.O. Azhigov
Perm State National Research University, Russia, 614990, Perm, Bukireva street, 15
Keywords: шквалы, смерчи, синоптические условия, мезомасштабное моделирование, модель WRF, данные GFS, данные ECMWF, squalls, tornadoes, synoptic-scale environments, mesoscale simulation, WRF model, GFS data, ECMWF data

Abstract

Strong squalls and several tornadoes occurred in European Russia on May 30, 2018, and caused significant damage. The data on the squalls were received from weather stations. The data on tornado events were updated from the analysis of satellite information about tornado-induced forest damage. We describe synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments and possibilities of short-term forecast of severe weather outbreaks. The mesoscale simulation is carried out in the WRF model version 3.9.1.1 (3 km resolution) with data of GFS/NCEP and ECMWF ERA-5 global atmospheric models as initial conditions. The strong squalls are simulated with a satisfactory reliability. It is found that the reliability of the WRF model forecast is significantly higher when using ECMWF ERA-5 data