Perspective of Motorization in the European Union and China in Various Scenarios of Diffusion of Fully Autonomous Shared Automobiles
M. Yu. Ksenofontov, S. R. Milyakin
Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS
Keywords: автомобилизация, совместное использование, беспилотные автомобили, сценарные расчеты, долгосрочный прогноз, Мotorization, car-sharing, autonomous vehicles, scenario calculations, longterm Forecast
Abstract
The article is devoted to the forecast of car fleet trends in various scenarios of the diffusion of the car-sharing phenomenon and automated driving technologies.The description of scenarios, tools of variant scenario forecast calculations, as well as their results for the European Union and China are given. They demonstrate thatin the 25-30 years perspective, these social and technological innovations can have a significant impact on the trajectory of car ownership and total car fleet. Under the influence of new factors, trends in these indicators will be described by a curvethat has a «peak», i.e. the maximum value, after which it will be observed not the stabilization of the achieved levels, as in the framework of the traditional approach formotorization processes modeling using S-shaped functions, but a grand-scale decline.
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