Hybrid method for wind gust firecast
M.M. Kurbatova1,2, K.G. Rubinstein1,2
1Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, 11-13, Bol'shoj Predtechenskij per., 123242, Moscow, Russia
2Nuclear Safety Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, Russia, 113191, Moscow, Bol'shaya Tul'skaya st., 52
Keywords: порывы ветра, гидродинамическая модель, прогноз, турбулентность, опасные явления, wind gusts, numerical weather model, forecast, turbulence, extreme meteorological events
Abstract
Various methods for predicting wind gusts speed based on numerical atmospheric models are considered. On the basis of different methods’ skill scores a new hybrid method for forecasting gusts is proposed. This method takes into account wind gusts of different formation mechanisms. Seven methods for forecasting wind gusts are evaluated based on the data of high-frequency measurements and the network of synoptic stations are given. The hybrid method gives more stable results throughout the year.
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