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Scientific journal Vestnik NSUEM

2017 year, number 2

Analysis of the companys risk profile based on the indicators of leverage effects

V.G. Ionin, N.Yu. Nikolaeva
Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Str. Kamenskaya, 56, Novosibirsk, 630099, Russia
Keywords: , , , , total risk, leverage effects, factor analysis, index analysis

Abstract

This article deals with the problems of factor analysis of the organizations total risk index. Our task was to perform the decomposition of this index into a sum of three factors - operational, non-operating and financial risks. Risks were measured with the use of appropriate indicators of the effects of leverage. The factor analysis of the cumulative risk is based on an equiprobable scheme. The method has been tested on four organizations for different time intervals. With the use of the tool of exponential smoothing we attempted to predict the changes in the target index and in factors.