Predicting Population Morbidity Under the Conditions of Air Pollution
O.P. BURMATOVA, T.V. SUMSKAYA
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: здоровье населения, Нижнее Приангарье, загрязнение атмосферного воздуха, тепловые электростанции, климатические особенности территории, population health, Lower Angara region, estimates, air pollution, thermal power plants, climatic features of the territory
Abstract
The article proposes an approach to considering quantitative relationships between population morbidity and the state of the natural environment around large thermal power plants. By exercising this approach with data from the Lesosibirsk industrial hub in the Lower Angara region, we managed to establish quantitative relationships between morbidity of child population and the factors affecting it. The article constructs hazardous substances dispersion maps that depend on climatic conditions, the location of production facilities, and characteristics of emissions in the area under study. Variant calculations carried out to determine the concentrations of hazardous substances in the territory, with due regard to the changed conditions for the purification of thermal power plant emissions, made it possible to conclude that it would be inexpedient to build a TPP of a given capacity in the Lower Angara region because of a possible increase in the incidence of upper respiratory tract diseases in children (up to 260-280 cases per 1,000 inhabitants a year).
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