Publishing House SB RAS:

Publishing House SB RAS:

Address of the Publishing House SB RAS:
Morskoy pr. 2, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia



Advanced Search

Region: Economics and Sociology

2017 year, number 2

Fertility in the Regions of Russia: Convergence or Divergence

A.L. SINITSA
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, 1, b1d. 46, Moscow, 119991, Russia
Keywords: рождаемость, суммарный коэффициент рождаемости, регионы России, конвергенция, межрегиональная дифференциация, государственное управление, fertility, tota1 fertility rate, Russian regions, convergence, inter-regiona1 differentiation, pub1ic administration

Abstract

The article examines changes in fertility that took place in the regions and federal districts of Russia between 1990 and 2014. To estimate the changes, we used the b-convergence and the s-convergence. Over the period under review, differences at the regional level increased and then decreased again due to the socio-economic peculiarities of Russia's development. At the federal districts level, the overall situation was similar except for less variation. There were no significant convergence models for the Ural and Siberian federal districts; the regions of the Northwestern and Volga federal districts were diverging; in other federal districts, the regions were converging. Although demographic policies greatly affected population behavior, we recognize a need for additional measures aimed at reducing differences between regions because of «clubs» of regions forming on fertility basis, which may have a negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia. The article concludes with recommendations concerning the state demographic policy, namely for developing measures meant to change reproductive intentions in low-fertility regions.