Dynamics and tendencies of the Laptev Sea hydrology and cryolitozone state in the 20th-21st centuries
E.N. Golubeva1,2, V.V. Malakhova1, G.A. Platov1,2, M.V. Kraineva1, D.F. Yakshina1,2
1Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics of the Siberian Branch of the RAS, 6, Ac. Lavrentieva ave., 630090, Novosibirsk, Russia
2Novosibirsk National Research State University, 2, Pirogova Str., Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: море Лаптевых, циркуляция вод, тепловой сток реки Лены, Восточно-Сибирский шельф, криолитозона, подводная мерзлота, Laptev Sea, water circulation, heat flux, East Siberian Shelf, cryolitozone, subsea permafrost
Abstract
The variability of the Laptev Sea hydrodynamics is analyzed on the basis of the Arctic Ocean model developed in ICMMG SB RAS. Based on the numerical simulation, we explore possible reasons for the increase in the bottom layer temperature known from observations, including: a) redistribution of water masses over the shelf zone forced by atmospheric dynamics; b) Laptev sea on-shelf inflow of warm and saline waters of Atlantic Layer of the Arctic Ocean, and c) the redistribution of water mass temperature anomalies caused by the heat river flux. The effect of the increase in the bottom layer temperature of the coastal region on the enhancement of underwater permafrost degradation is studied. The upper boundary of the permafrost depth and the permafrost thawing rate are estimated for the modern climate conditions and under the forecasted Arctic climate changes in the 21st century.
|
