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Contemporary Problems of Ecology

2016 year, number 6

Modelling of Сlimatic Limits of Lophodermium Needle Cast and their Shifts in a Changing Climate in Central Siberia

N. M. TCHEBAKOVA, N. A. KUZMINA, E. I. PARFENOVA, V. A. SENASHOVA, S. R. KUZMIN
V. N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB RAS, 660036, Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok, 50/28
Keywords: обыкновенное шютте, сосна, изменение климата, Средняя Сибирь, needle cast, Scots pine, climate change, Central Siberia

Abstract

The relationships between climate (January and July temperatures, annual precipitation and a relative moisture index) and the numbers and intensities of Lophodermium needle cast disease events in Pinus sylvestris L. nurseries and provenance trials across the Krasnoyarsk Krai have been studied using multiple regressions. The maximum number of the disease manifestations was found to be associated with warm and humid weather conditions. Climate-based biolclimatic models of Lophodermium needle cast have been built and used to predict a spatial dynamics of the disease for two climate change scenarios during the 21st century. Model experiments demonstrated that the needle cast range would shift northwards into new regions where this pathogen had not been registered in nurseries yet. The largest forest areas that may be damaged by disease outbreaks are predicted under moderate warming by 2020. Under substantial warming by 2080, forest areas of potential disease outbreaks would decrease because pine shifts into the permafrost zone would be limited by slow thawing of its active layer depth.