Large-Scale Investment Projects: the Problem of Choice Under Uncertainty
D.D. SHIBIKIN
Siberian Transport University, Dusya Kovalchuk st., 191, Novosibirsk, 630049, Russia
Keywords: крупномасштабные инвестиционные проекты, неопределенность, коммерческая эффективность, стратегическая эффективность, структуризация, выбор, large-scale investment projects, uncertainty, commercial success, strategic effectiveness, structuring, choice
Abstract
The article describes the method of choice for a preferred implementation of large-scale investment project among other alternatives under radical uncertainty. Since projects of this scale are usually rather complex, the selection procedure begins with target structuring. A target system (objective tree) is quantified by using expert techniques. Similarly, the next phase involves building a hierarchy of scenarios describing the development of the economy within the completing projects' life cycles. These two steps result in a strategic evaluation matrix. After analyzing it, according to the decision theory, a researcher is able to select the preferred large-scale investment project. The method has been tested in the evaluation of the following competing projects: Lena-Kamchatka Mainline, Transpolar Mainline, and the reconstruction of the Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Mainline routes.
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