Large-scale investment projects: comparative analysis of efficiency evaluation methods used by russia's natural monopolies
YE.B. KIBALOV, A.A. KIN
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ac. Lavrentiev Av., 17, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Keywords: естественные монополии, крупномасштабный инвестиционный проект, оценка общественной эффективности, учет фактора неопределенности, natural monopolies, large-scale investment project, public efficiency evaluation, uncertainty management
Abstract
The article analyzes the evaluation rules for large-scale capital-forming projects implemented by the commercial state-controlled natural monopolies (Gazprom, Transneft, and Russian Railways). It demonstrates that the evaluation techniques developed by the monopolies or suggested for them by government agencies do not account for uncertainty. In addition, the Gazprom's method evaluates only commercial efficiency, whereas the public efficiency of its gas projects of multinational importance is not under analysis. Although they operate within the same country, all three strategic players in Russia's raw materials sector employ substantially different evaluation models for their strategically significant projects. We conclude that the main direction to improve methods for evaluating large-scale investment projects does not only consist in improving evaluation tools, but also in identifying the «naturalness» of monopoly abuse in relation to the implementation subjects of these infrastructure projects, as well as in changing the character of their interaction with the state.
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