METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO SCENARIOS DEVELOPMENT FOR PROJECT IN CONSTRUCTION FIELD
V.V. Nazarova, E.V. Morozova
National Research University Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg
Keywords: scenario approach, risk analysis, investment project, real estate market, investment efficiency
Abstract
Scenario method of risk analysis significantly increases efficiency of estimation of possible project losses in uncertain environment, with multidirectional trends on real estate market and relatively long time horizon. Subsequently it can be of defining value both for taking effective managerial decisions in the course of project realization, and for its total estimation. The article reveals essential characteristics of the scenario method: analysis and generalization of approaches to the definition of the «scenario» notion as well as their classification are made, methods of scenarios elaboration as the most difficult step in risk valuation process are considered. Scenario algorithm of risk analysis for residential property project is developed.
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